March 2nd 2026 Bracketology **Updated 1pm ET**

 Seed Power Team

1 1 * Duke

1 2 * Michigan

1 3 * Arizona

1 4 * UConn

2 5 * Florida

2 6 Houston

2 7 Michigan St

2 8 Nebraska

3 9 Illinois

3 10 Texas Tech

3 11 Purdue

3 12 Iowa State

4 13 * Gonzaga

4 14 Kansas

4 15 Alabama

4 16 Virginia

5 17 North Carolina

5 18 Vanderbilt

5 19 Arkansas

5 20 Tennessee

6 21 St. John's

6 22 Louisville

6 23 Wisconsin

6 24 * Utah St

7 25 Kentucky

7 26 BYU

7 27 Villanova

7 28 Clemson

8 29 St. Mary's

8 30 UCF

8 31 * Saint Louis

8 32 Miami

9 33 Iowa

9 34 NC State

9 35 Georgia

9 36 Missouri

10 37 Texas

10 38 Ohio State

10 39 UCLA

10 40 SMU

11 41 * Miami-OH

11 42 Texas A&M

11a 43 Santa Clara

11b 44 TCU

11c 45 New Mexico

11d 46 VCU

12 47 * South Florida

12 48 * Belmont

12 49 * Stephen F. Austin

12 50 * High Point

13 51 * Yale

13 52 * Liberty

13 53 * UNCW

13 54 * Cal Baptist

14 55 * Hawai'i

14 56 * North Dakota St

14 57 * Navy

14 58 * Troy

15 59 *Austin Peay

15 60 * East Tenn St

15 61 * Wright St

15 62 * Portland St

16 63 * Merrimack

16 64 * Tennessee St

16a 65 * Howard

16a 66 * Long Island

16a 67 * UMBC

16a 68 * Bethune Cookman

Last Four In: VCU, New Mexico, TCU, Santa Clara

First Four Out: Indiana, San Diego St., Va Tech, USC

Next Four Out:California, Auburn, WVU, Seton Hall

Notes:

- Bubble teams had a bad weekend. With Auburn and California picking up very damaging losses and falling out of my field, while Indiana, SDSU, Va Tech, USC, Seton Hall all missed chances to pick up big wins and move into my field. New Mexico and VCU were the beneficiaries winning this weekend and moving into the field.

- Now we begin my favorites 2 weeks of the sports year with conference tournaments. I will endeavor to update this every day going forward. 

-No bubble games tonight. NC State is likely safely in my field but they have lost 4 of 5 and have #1 Duke in Raleigh tonight. A win would obviously be huge, a loss would put the Pack in a position where a win at home against Stanford to close the season would be recommended just to have a stress free ACC tournament, although they would still likely be ok.

February 26th 2026 Bracketology **Updated 12:30pm ET**

 Seed Power Power

1 1 * Duke

1 2 * Michigan

1 3 * Arizona

1 4 * UConn

2 5 Purdue

2 6 Houston

2 7 * Florida

2 8 Iowa State

3 9 Illinois

3 10 Nebraska

3 11 * Gonzaga

3 12 Kansas

4 13 Texas Tech

4 14 Michigan St

4 15 Virginia

4 16 Alabama

5 17 Vanderbilt

5 18 Arkansas

5 19 North Carolina

5 20 Tennessee

6 21 Louisville

6 22 St. John's

6 23 BYU

6 24 Villanova

7 25 Wisconsin

7 26 Iowa

7 27 * Utah St

7 28 NC State

8 29 UCF

8 30 * Saint Louis

8 31 Kentucky

8 32 Miami

9 33 Clemson

9 34 St. Mary's

9 35 SMU

9 36 UCLA

10 37 * Miami-OH

10 38 Texas A&M

10 39 Georgia

10 40 Missouri

11 41 Texas

11 42 Santa Clara

11a 43 Auburn

11b 44 Ohio State

11c 45 California

11d 46 TCU

12 47 * South Florida

12 48 * Belmont

12 49 * Yale

12 50 * Stephen F. Austin

13 51 * High Point

13 52 * Liberty

13 53 * UNCW

13 54 * Hawai'i

14 55 * North Dakota St

14 56 * Navy

14 57 * Austin Peay

14 58 * Portland St

15 59 * Troy

15 60 * East Tenn St

15 61 * Wright St

15 62 * Merrimack

16 63 *Utah Tech

16 64 * Howard

16a 65 * Long Island

16a 66 * UMBC

16a 67 * Bethune Cookman

16a 68 *Morehead St

Last Four In: TCU, California, Ohio St., Auburn

First Four Out: Indiana, San Diego St., New Mexico, Virginia Tech

Next Four Out: VCU, USC, Seton Hall, Oklahoma St.

Notes:

- The two biggest results from bubble land last night was California picking up a Q2 win over SMU and San Diego St picking up a Q1 win over Utah State. This was enough for me to slide California into my field and SDSU up to the 2nd team out. Indiana fell out. Indiana's biggest issue is they only have 2 Q1 wins, and 2 Q2 wins, and their Q1/Q2/Q3 record is 10-12. That is pretty mediocre. Their home win over Purdue is a big feather in the cap. They also have pretty good predictive metrics, TOR=30, KenPom=43, but their resume metrics, which is the biggest metric to get you into the field, are not great, WAB=49, SOR=47. TCU has a WAB=45,SOR=44, California 43/46, Ohio St. 46/45, Auburn 42/41, Santa Clara 41/43 for comparison. The good news for teams like Indiana, power 4 schools in strong conferences, is that they still have opportunities to change things. Indiana finishes with Q1 vs Michigan St., Q2 vs Minnesota, Q1@ Ohio St in a bubble buster game. A 2-1 finish and avoiding a bad loss in the B1G tourny may be enough, 1-2 probably not.

- For SDSU, I am valuing their resume above MWC peer New Mexico but not yet over Indiana or the bottom few teams in the bracket. Their resume metrics are worse than the teams above, SOR=55, WAB=53 and nothing else about their resume really stands out to overcome that. They have enough quality wins 2Q1, 5 Q2 and only one bad loss. But they need a strong finish to move in. Last night was a good start and they have two more Q1 opportunities in a row,  @ New Mexico and @ Boise State, before a Q3 game at home vs UNLV to finish the season. They may need to run the table. A 2-1 finish would likely have the on the edge heading into the MWC tournament.

- No real bubble games tonight or tomorrow, although of course Miami Oh needs to keep winning to feel secure and they play tomorrow @WMU in a must not lose game.

February 25th 2026 Bracketology **Updated 2pm ET**

 Seed Power Power

1 1 * Duke

1 2 * Arizona

1 3 * Michigan

1 4 UConn

2 5 Iowa State

2 6 Purdue

2 7 Houston

2 8 * Florida

3 9 Illinois

3 10 Nebraska

3 11 Kansas

3 12 * Gonzaga

4 13 Texas Tech

4 14 Michigan St

4 15 Virginia

4 16 Alabama

5 17 Vanderbilt

5 18 Arkansas

5 19 Tennessee

5 20 * St. John's

6 21 North Carolina

6 22 Louisville

6 23 Wisconsin

6 24 BYU

7 25 * Utah St

7 26 Villanova

7 27 NC State

7 28 * Saint Louis

8 29 UCF

8 30 Kentucky

8 31 Iowa

8 32 SMU

9 33 Miami

9 34 Clemson

9 35 Georgia

9 36 Texas A&M

10 37 St. Mary's

10 38 * Miami-OH

10 39 UCLA

10 40 Texas

11 41 Santa Clara

11 42 Missouri

11a 43 Ohio State

11b 44 Auburn

11c 45 TCU

11d 46 Indiana

12 47 * South Florida

12 48 * Belmont

12 49 * Stephen F. Austin

12 50 * Yale

13 51 * High Point

13 52 * Liberty

13 53 * UNCW

13 54 * Hawai'i

14 55 * North Dakota St

14 56 * Austin Peay

14 57 * Portland St

14 58 * East Tenn St

15 59 * Troy

15 60 * Navy

15 61 * Wright St

15 62 * Merrimack

16 63 *Utah Tech

16 64 * Howard

16a 65 * Long Island

16a 66 * UMBC

16a 67 * Bethune Cookman

16a 68 *Morehead St

Last Four In: Indiana, TCU, Auburn, Ohio St.

First Four Out: New Mexico, Va Tech, VCU, USC

Next Four Out: California, SDSU, Seton Hall, Oklahoma St.

Notes:

- Ohio State's win on the road at Northwestern is now a Q1 after Northwestern moved up to a NET of 69 by beating Indiana on the road last night. This seems minor but is huge for Ohio St. If they can add one more to that it would put them on more firm footing.

- USC's loss last night to UCLA knocked the Trojans even further away from the tournament last night. Their wins arent bad, 2 Q1, 7 Q2. They have one bad Q3 loss, but their metrics are not great. Poor performance and resume vs other bubble teams. Fortunately for USC they do have 3 games left, Q1 at home vs Nebraska, Q1 @ Washington, Q2 vs UCLA plus the B1G tournament. So they still have time, but the margin for error is almost 0 now.

- On the bubble last night, New Mexico also missed a golden chance losing a Q1 game on the road to Nevada. That would have probably pushed them into my field. Cincy now has no room for error after losing to Texas Tech on the road. TCU kept their spot with a win at home over Arizona State, and Missouri and UCL bolstered their resumes. Auburn lost and remain a tricky team. At only 15-13, only one team has gotten an at-large bid with a record 2 games over .500, that was Georgia in 1999 who also had the nations toughest schedule like Auburn. Auburn has a must win game at home Saturday against Ole Miss which will be Q3, and then another one next Tuesday against LSU in what is a Q2 game as of now. They finish with a Q1 at Alabama. I think Auburn has to win their next two, if they do that and beat Alabama they are a lock. If they win those two and lose to Alabama, they are probably in heading into the SEC tournament, but vulnerable. A 1-2 finish will have Auburn out of my bracket.

- Bubble Games Tonight:

Florida @ Texas - Texas is 7 teams deep in todays bracket, but the finish is very tough. UF, @ A&M, @ Arkansas, Oklahoma. Im not sure a 1-3 finish will get them in. Win tonight, and they can breathe much easier.

Ohio St @ Iowa - A chance to add a 2nd Q1 win for Ohio State tonight. They probably need at least a 2-2 finish to keep their spot heading into the B1G tournament.

SMU @ California - To say this is the biggest game of the season for Cal is an understatement. California is my 5th team out and there last 4 games are SMU (Q1), Pitt (Q3), @ GT (Q3),  @ WF (Q1). The bugger is that a win over SMU would probably knock it form Q1 to Q2. But Cal probably just needs to win all 4 of these. This would likely have them in the field heading into the ACC tournament. This is doable, but it is now or never for Cal.A loss tonight, would mean Cal would likely have to win their final 3 and a game or two in the ACC tournament.

Santa Clara @ St. Marys - Another huge bubble game. Santa Clara could probably weather a loss here and then beat Oregon St and avoid a bad loss in the WCC tournament. That might be enough, but a win here and a win against Oregon St would wrap it up. St. Marys is probably safely in at this point.

Utah St @ SDSU - The good news for SDSU is their next 3 games are Q1 opportunities Utah St, @ New Mexico, @ Boise St., before finishing with a Q3 game at home vs UNLV. The bad news is a 2-2 finish probably wont get it done. Meaning they really need to upset Utah State tonight at home. Of course beat UNLV to close the season and find a way to split the two road games. That would likely have them in heading into the MWC tournament, but still needing to avoid a bad loss and still close enough to the cut line that they will be uncomfortable if we see conf tournament cinderellas.

February 23rd 2026 Bracketology **Updated 12pm ET**

 Seed Power

1 * Duke

1 * Arizona

1 * Michigan

1 UConn

2 Houston

2 Iowa State

2 Purdue

2 * Florida

3 Illinois

3 Nebraska

3 * Gonzaga

3 Kansas

4 Texas Tech

4 Michigan St

4 Virginia

4 Alabama

5 Vanderbilt

5 Tennessee

5 Arkansas

5 * St. John's

6 BYU

6 Louisville

6 North Carolina

6 Wisconsin

7 NC State

7 * Utah St

7 Villanova

7 * Saint Louis

8 Kentucky

8 Iowa

8 SMU

8 Clemson

9 Miami

9 Georgia

9 UCF

9 Texas A&M

10 St. Mary's

10 Indiana

10 Texas

10 * Miami-OH

11 Auburn

11 Santa Clara

11a UCLA

11b Missouri

11c Ohio State

11d TCU

12 * South Florida

12 * Belmont

12 * Stephen F. Austin

12 * Yale

13 * High Point

13 * Liberty

13 * UNCW

13 * Hawai'i

14 * North Dakota St

14 * Austin Peay

14 * Portland St

14 * East Tenn St

15 * Navy

15 * Wright St

15 * Merrimack

15 *Utah Tech

16 *Appalachian St

16 * Howard

16a * Long Island

16a * UMBC

16a * Tennessee St

16a * Bethune Cookman

Last Four In: TCU, Ohio St., Missouri, UCLA

First Four Out: USC, New Mexico, Virginia Tech, VCU

Next Four Out: California, San Diego St., Seton Hall, Cincinnati

February 19th 2026 Bracketology **Updated 1:30pm ET**

 Seed Power Team

1 1 * Michigan

1 2 * Duke

1 3 * Arizona

1 4 Iowa State

2 5 Houston

2 6 UConn

2 7 Illinois

2 8 Purdue

3 9 Kansas

3 10 * Florida

3 11 Nebraska

3 12 * Gonzaga

4 13 Michigan St

4 14 Vanderbilt

4 15 Alabama

4 16 Virginia

5 17 Texas Tech

5 18 Arkansas

5 19 Louisville

5 20 * St. John's

6 21 Tennessee

6 22 BYU

6 23 North Carolina

6 24 Villanova

7 25 * Utah St

7 26 NC State

7 27 Clemson

7 28 Kentucky

8 29 Iowa

8 30 Wisconsin

8 31 * Saint Louis

8 32 Miami

9 33 SMU

9 34 UCF

9 35 Indiana

9 36 St. Mary's

10 37 Georgia

10 38 Texas A&M

10 39 Texas

10 40 USC

11 41 * Miami-OH

11 42 Missouri

11a 43 Auburn

11b 44 Santa Clara

11c 45 UCLA

11d 46 Ohio State

12 47 * South Florida

12 48 * Belmont

12 49 * Liberty

12 50 * Stephen F. Austin

13 51 * Yale

13 52 * High Point

13 53 * Hawai'i

13 54 * UNCW

14 55 * Cal Baptist

14 56 * North Dakota St

14 57 * Austin Peay

14 58 * Navy

15 59 * Portland St

15 60 * East Tenn St

15 61 * Wright St

15 62 * Troy

16 63 * Merrimack

16 64 * UT Martin

16a 65 * Long Island

16a 66 * Howard

16a 67 * Bethune Cookman

16a 68 *NJIT

Last Four In: Ohio St., UCLA, Santa Clara, Auburn

First Four Out: TCU, New Mexico, San Diego St., Virginia Tech

Next Four Out: VCU, California, WVU, Arizona St.

Notes:

I struggled to find an 8th team out today. I put Arizona State there, but realistically the probably have to be about perfect to be in the field heading into the conference tournament. There are similar teams that if they win there last 4/5/6 games, it could be enough to push them from not even in the first 8 out, to in the field. Teams like Arizona State, Cincinatti, Wake Forest, Baylor, Seton Hall, Oklahoma, Stanford, Oklahoma State.

February 18th 2026 **Updated 1pm ET**

 Seed Power Team

1 1 * Michigan

1 2 * Duke

1 3 * Arizona

1 4 * UConn

2 5 Iowa State

2 6 Houston

2 7 Illinois

2 8 Purdue

3 9 Kansas

3 10 * Florida

3 11 Nebraska

3 12 Vanderbilt

4 13 * Gonzaga

4 14 Michigan St

4 15 Texas Tech

4 16 Virginia

5 17 Alabama

5 18 Arkansas

5 19 Louisville

5 20 St. John's

6 21 Tennessee

6 22 BYU

6 23 North Carolina

6 24 Clemson

7 25 Villanova

7 26 NC State

7 27 * Utah St

7 28 Iowa

8 29 Kentucky

8 30 * Saint Louis

8 31 Wisconsin

8 32 Miami

9 33 SMU

9 34 UCF

9 35 Indiana

9 36 USC

10 37 St. Mary's

10 38 Auburn

10 39 Georgia

10 40 Texas A&M

11 41 Texas

11 42 * Miami-OH

11a 43 Santa Clara

11b 44 UCLA

11c 45 Ohio State

11d 46 TCU

12 47 * South Florida

12 48 * Belmont

12 49 * Liberty

12 50 * Stephen F. Austin

13 51 * Yale

13 52 * High Point

13 53 * Hawai'i

13 54 * UNCW

14 55 * Cal Baptist

14 56 * Austin Peay

14 57 * North Dakota St

14 58 * Portland St

15 59 * Navy

15 60 * East Tenn St

15 61 * Wright St

15 62 * Merrimack

16 63 *Appalachian St

16 64 * UT Martin

16a 65 * Long Island

16a 66 * Howard

16a 67 * Bethune Cookman

16a 68 *NJIT

Last Four In: TCU, Ohio St., UCLA, Santa Clara

First Four Out: Missouri, New Mexico, San Diego St., VCU

Next Four Out: WVU, Va Tech, Seton Hall, California

Notes:

- Iowa State has a shot to take the last 1 seed away from UConn. They have 5 games, left 3 Q1, and 2 Q2. UConn's last 5 are 2 Q1, 2 Q2, and a Q3. Whoever does best in that last stretch could get it and Houston is still in the mix too. I dont think Illinois/Purdue could get a 1 unless they win out through the Big Ten tournament.

- On the bubble. Ohio State is in my latest field, despite not having a Q1 win. Their metrics are better than other bubble teams and they are 6-1 in Q2 and have no bad losses. Still according to my records since the quads began, no power 4 team has gotten an at-large without at least 1 Q1 win. They do have 3 Q1 chances left in their final 5 and at the big 10 tournament as well. They probably need to get at least 1 to hold their spot. 

- Another curious case could be Auburn. I have Auburn as a 10 seed right now, but their overall record of 14-11 is not good. Georgia in 1999, is the only team to get an at-large bid only being 2 games over .500. That team also played the toughest schedule in the country like Auburn. Auburns final 6 feature a Q3, 2 Q2s, and 2 Q1s. Then the SEC tournament. A 2-4 finish would have them probably out at 16-15 heading into the SEC tournament. A 3-3 finish would have them at 17-14 and probably in heading into the SEC tournament, but probably needing a win to feel good. 

February 16th 2026 **Updated 130pm ET**

 Seed Power Team

1 1 * Michigan

1 2 * Duke

1 3 Arizona

1 4 * Houston

2 5 * UConn

2 6 Purdue

2 7 Iowa State

2 8 Illinois

3 9 Nebraska

3 10 Kansas

3 11 * Florida

3 12 * Gonzaga

4 13 Vanderbilt

4 14 Texas Tech

4 15 Michigan St

4 16 Virginia

5 17 Alabama

5 18 Arkansas

5 19 Louisville

5 20 North Carolina

6 21 St. John's

6 22 Tennessee

6 23 BYU

6 24 * Saint Louis

7 25 Kentucky

7 26 Wisconsin

7 27 Clemson

7 28 Villanova

8 29 * Utah St

8 30 Miami

8 31 NC State

8 32 Iowa

9 33 UCF

9 34 SMU

9 35 Indiana

9 36 St. Mary's

10 37 Auburn

10 38 Texas A&M

10 39 USC

10 40 Texas

11a 41 UCLA

11 42 * Miami-OH

11 43 Santa Clara

11b 44 Georgia

11c 45 TCU

11d 46 San Diego St

12 47 * South Florida

12 48 * Belmont

12 49 * Liberty

12 50 * Stephen F. Austin

13 51 * Yale

13 52 * High Point

13 53 *Utah Valley

13 54 * Hawai'i

14 55 * UNCW

14 56 * North Dakota St

14 57 * Austin Peay

14 58 * Portland St

15 59 * East Tenn St

15 60 * Navy

15 61 * Wright St

15 62 * South Alabama

16 63 * Merrimack

16 64 * UT Martin

16a 65 * Long Island

16a 66 * Bethune Cookman

16a 67 *NJIT

16a 68 * Morgan St

Last Four In: SDSU, TCU, Georgia, Santa Clara

First Four Out: Missouri, Ohio St, New Mexico, WVU

Next Four out: Va Tech, Seton Hall, California, VCU