Seed Power Power
1 1 * Duke
1 2 * Michigan
1 3 * Arizona
1 4 * UConn
2 5 Purdue
2 6 Houston
2 7 * Florida
2 8 Iowa State
3 9 Illinois
3 10 Nebraska
3 11 * Gonzaga
3 12 Kansas
4 13 Texas Tech
4 14 Michigan St
4 15 Virginia
4 16 Alabama
5 17 Vanderbilt
5 18 Arkansas
5 19 North Carolina
5 20 Tennessee
6 21 Louisville
6 22 St. John's
6 23 BYU
6 24 Villanova
7 25 Wisconsin
7 26 Iowa
7 27 * Utah St
7 28 NC State
8 29 UCF
8 30 * Saint Louis
8 31 Kentucky
8 32 Miami
9 33 Clemson
9 34 St. Mary's
9 35 SMU
9 36 UCLA
10 37 * Miami-OH
10 38 Texas A&M
10 39 Georgia
10 40 Missouri
11 41 Texas
11 42 Santa Clara
11a 43 Auburn
11b 44 Ohio State
11c 45 California
11d 46 TCU
12 47 * South Florida
12 48 * Belmont
12 49 * Yale
12 50 * Stephen F. Austin
13 51 * High Point
13 52 * Liberty
13 53 * UNCW
13 54 * Hawai'i
14 55 * North Dakota St
14 56 * Navy
14 57 * Austin Peay
14 58 * Portland St
15 59 * Troy
15 60 * East Tenn St
15 61 * Wright St
15 62 * Merrimack
16 63 *Utah Tech
16 64 * Howard
16a 65 * Long Island
16a 66 * UMBC
16a 67 * Bethune Cookman
16a 68 *Morehead St
Last Four In: TCU, California, Ohio St., Auburn
First Four Out: Indiana, San Diego St., New Mexico, Virginia Tech
Next Four Out: VCU, USC, Seton Hall, Oklahoma St.
Notes:
- The two biggest results from bubble land last night was California picking up a Q2 win over SMU and San Diego St picking up a Q1 win over Utah State. This was enough for me to slide California into my field and SDSU up to the 2nd team out. Indiana fell out. Indiana's biggest issue is they only have 2 Q1 wins, and 2 Q2 wins, and their Q1/Q2/Q3 record is 10-12. That is pretty mediocre. Their home win over Purdue is a big feather in the cap. They also have pretty good predictive metrics, TOR=30, KenPom=43, but their resume metrics, which is the biggest metric to get you into the field, are not great, WAB=49, SOR=47. TCU has a WAB=45,SOR=44, California 43/46, Ohio St. 46/45, Auburn 42/41, Santa Clara 41/43 for comparison. The good news for teams like Indiana, power 4 schools in strong conferences, is that they still have opportunities to change things. Indiana finishes with Q1 vs Michigan St., Q2 vs Minnesota, Q1@ Ohio St in a bubble buster game. A 2-1 finish and avoiding a bad loss in the B1G tourny may be enough, 1-2 probably not.
- For SDSU, I am valuing their resume above MWC peer New Mexico but not yet over Indiana or the bottom few teams in the bracket. Their resume metrics are worse than the teams above, SOR=55, WAB=53 and nothing else about their resume really stands out to overcome that. They have enough quality wins 2Q1, 5 Q2 and only one bad loss. But they need a strong finish to move in. Last night was a good start and they have two more Q1 opportunities in a row, @ New Mexico and @ Boise State, before a Q3 game at home vs UNLV to finish the season. They may need to run the table. A 2-1 finish would likely have the on the edge heading into the MWC tournament.
- No real bubble games tonight or tomorrow, although of course Miami Oh needs to keep winning to feel secure and they play tomorrow @WMU in a must not lose game.
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