Seed Power Power
1 1 * Duke
1 2 * Arizona
1 3 * Michigan
1 4 UConn
2 5 Iowa State
2 6 Purdue
2 7 Houston
2 8 * Florida
3 9 Illinois
3 10 Nebraska
3 11 Kansas
3 12 * Gonzaga
4 13 Texas Tech
4 14 Michigan St
4 15 Virginia
4 16 Alabama
5 17 Vanderbilt
5 18 Arkansas
5 19 Tennessee
5 20 * St. John's
6 21 North Carolina
6 22 Louisville
6 23 Wisconsin
6 24 BYU
7 25 * Utah St
7 26 Villanova
7 27 NC State
7 28 * Saint Louis
8 29 UCF
8 30 Kentucky
8 31 Iowa
8 32 SMU
9 33 Miami
9 34 Clemson
9 35 Georgia
9 36 Texas A&M
10 37 St. Mary's
10 38 * Miami-OH
10 39 UCLA
10 40 Texas
11 41 Santa Clara
11 42 Missouri
11a 43 Ohio State
11b 44 Auburn
11c 45 TCU
11d 46 Indiana
12 47 * South Florida
12 48 * Belmont
12 49 * Stephen F. Austin
12 50 * Yale
13 51 * High Point
13 52 * Liberty
13 53 * UNCW
13 54 * Hawai'i
14 55 * North Dakota St
14 56 * Austin Peay
14 57 * Portland St
14 58 * East Tenn St
15 59 * Troy
15 60 * Navy
15 61 * Wright St
15 62 * Merrimack
16 63 *Utah Tech
16 64 * Howard
16a 65 * Long Island
16a 66 * UMBC
16a 67 * Bethune Cookman
16a 68 *Morehead St
Last Four In: Indiana, TCU, Auburn, Ohio St.
First Four Out: New Mexico, Va Tech, VCU, USC
Next Four Out: California, SDSU, Seton Hall, Oklahoma St.
Notes:
- Ohio State's win on the road at Northwestern is now a Q1 after Northwestern moved up to a NET of 69 by beating Indiana on the road last night. This seems minor but is huge for Ohio St. If they can add one more to that it would put them on more firm footing.
- USC's loss last night to UCLA knocked the Trojans even further away from the tournament last night. Their wins arent bad, 2 Q1, 7 Q2. They have one bad Q3 loss, but their metrics are not great. Poor performance and resume vs other bubble teams. Fortunately for USC they do have 3 games left, Q1 at home vs Nebraska, Q1 @ Washington, Q2 vs UCLA plus the B1G tournament. So they still have time, but the margin for error is almost 0 now.
- On the bubble last night, New Mexico also missed a golden chance losing a Q1 game on the road to Nevada. That would have probably pushed them into my field. Cincy now has no room for error after losing to Texas Tech on the road. TCU kept their spot with a win at home over Arizona State, and Missouri and UCL bolstered their resumes. Auburn lost and remain a tricky team. At only 15-13, only one team has gotten an at-large bid with a record 2 games over .500, that was Georgia in 1999 who also had the nations toughest schedule like Auburn. Auburn has a must win game at home Saturday against Ole Miss which will be Q3, and then another one next Tuesday against LSU in what is a Q2 game as of now. They finish with a Q1 at Alabama. I think Auburn has to win their next two, if they do that and beat Alabama they are a lock. If they win those two and lose to Alabama, they are probably in heading into the SEC tournament, but vulnerable. A 1-2 finish will have Auburn out of my bracket.
- Bubble Games Tonight:
Florida @ Texas - Texas is 7 teams deep in todays bracket, but the finish is very tough. UF, @ A&M, @ Arkansas, Oklahoma. Im not sure a 1-3 finish will get them in. Win tonight, and they can breathe much easier.
Ohio St @ Iowa - A chance to add a 2nd Q1 win for Ohio State tonight. They probably need at least a 2-2 finish to keep their spot heading into the B1G tournament.
SMU @ California - To say this is the biggest game of the season for Cal is an understatement. California is my 5th team out and there last 4 games are SMU (Q1), Pitt (Q3), @ GT (Q3), @ WF (Q1). The bugger is that a win over SMU would probably knock it form Q1 to Q2. But Cal probably just needs to win all 4 of these. This would likely have them in the field heading into the ACC tournament. This is doable, but it is now or never for Cal.A loss tonight, would mean Cal would likely have to win their final 3 and a game or two in the ACC tournament.
Santa Clara @ St. Marys - Another huge bubble game. Santa Clara could probably weather a loss here and then beat Oregon St and avoid a bad loss in the WCC tournament. That might be enough, but a win here and a win against Oregon St would wrap it up. St. Marys is probably safely in at this point.
Utah St @ SDSU - The good news for SDSU is their next 3 games are Q1 opportunities Utah St, @ New Mexico, @ Boise St., before finishing with a Q3 game at home vs UNLV. The bad news is a 2-2 finish probably wont get it done. Meaning they really need to upset Utah State tonight at home. Of course beat UNLV to close the season and find a way to split the two road games. That would likely have them in heading into the MWC tournament, but still needing to avoid a bad loss and still close enough to the cut line that they will be uncomfortable if we see conf tournament cinderellas.
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