***Final Bracketology March 17th 2024 5:45pm ET***

 ***Final Bracket 5:45pm March 17th 2024***

Seed Power Team

1 1 UConn

1 2 Houston

1 3 Purdue

1 4 North Carolina

2 5 Iowa St.

2 6 Tennessee

2 7 Arizona

2 8 Marquette

3 9 Baylor

3 10 Illinois

3 11 Creighton

3 12 Duke

4 13 Kentucky

4 14 Kansas

4 15 Auburn

4 16 Alabama

5 17 South Carolina

5 18 Texas Tech

5 19 Wisconsin

5 20 San Diego St.

6 21 Florida

6 22 Utah St.

6 23 BYU

6 24 Saint Mary's (CA)

7 25 Nevada

7 26 Clemson

7 27 Gonzaga

7 28 Washington St.

8 29 Dayton

8 30 Nebraska

8 31 Colorado St.

8 32 Boise St.

9 33 Colorado

9 34 Texas

9 35 Mississippi St.

9 36 Northwestern

10 37 Fla. Atlantic

10a 38 TCU

10b 39 Michigan St.

10 40 New Mexico

10c 41 Texas A&M

10d 42 St. John's (NY)

11 43 Oregon

11 44 NC State

11 45 Drake

11 46 Grand Canyon

12 47 James Madison

12 48 McNeese

12 49 Duqense

12 50 Yale

13 51 Samford

13 52 Vermont

13 53 UAB

13 54 Col. of Charleston

14 55 Akron

14 56 Oakland

14 57 Morehead St.

14 58 Colgate

15 59 Western Kentucky

15 60 South Dakota St.

15 61 Long Beach St.

15 62 Longwood

16 63 St. Peters

16 64 Stetson

16a 65 Montana St.

16a 66 Grambling St.

16b 67 Howard

16b 68 Wagner

First Four Out: Oklahoma, Virginia, Seton Hall, Pittsburgh

*** Bracketology March 17th 2024 12pm ET***

Seed Power Team

1 1 UConn*

1 2 Houston

1 3 Purdue

1 4 North Carolina

2 5 Iowa St.*

2 6 Tennessee

2 7 Arizona

2 8 Marquette

3 9 Baylor

3 10 Illinois*

3 11 Creighton

3 12 Duke

4 13 Kentucky

4 14 Kansas

4 15 Auburn*

4 16 Alabama

5 17 South Carolina

5 18 Texas Tech

5 19 Wisconsin

5 20 San Diego St.

6 21 Florida

6 22 Utah St.

6 23 BYU

6 24 Saint Mary's (CA)*

7 25 Nevada

7 26 Clemson

7 27 Gonzaga

7 28 Washington St.

8 29 Dayton

8 30 Nebraska

8 31 Colorado St.

8 32 Boise St.

9 33 Colorado

9 34 Texas

9 35 Mississippi St.

9 36 Northwestern

10 37 Fla. Atlantic

10a 38 TCU

10b 39 Michigan St.

10 40 New Mexico*

10c 41 Texas A&M

10d 42 St. John's (NY)

11 43 Oregon*

11 44 NC State*

11 45 Drake*

11 46 Grand Canyon*

12 47 James Madison*

12 48 McNeese*

12 49 VCU*

12 50 Yale*

13 51 Samford*

13 52 Vermont*

13 53 UAB*

13 54 Col. of Charleston*

14 55 Akron*

14 56 Oakland*

14 57 Morehead St.*

14 58 Colgate*

15 59 Western Kentucky*

15 60 South Dakota St.*

15 61 Long Beach St.*

15 62 Longwood*

16 63 St. Peters*

16 64 Stetson*

16a 65 Montana St.*

16a 66 Grambling St.*

16b 67 Howard*

16b 68 Wagner *

Last Four In (First Team listed is last team in the field): St. Johns, Texas A&M, Michigan St., TCu

First Four Out (First Team listed is first team out): Oklahoma, Virginia, Seton Hall, Pittsburgh

Next Four Out: Indiana St., Providence, Kansas St., Wake Forest

Notes:

- After a wild bubble Friday, Saturday topped it. All three things that needed to go right for the last few teams in the field went wrong. FAU lost leaving the AAC as a 2 bid league and NC State and Oregon outright stole bids. Not to mention if there was any doubt for New Mexico they got the automatic bid. This resulted in wild movement at the bottom of the bubble. Virginia and Oklahoma were my big losers from yesterdays action. I think that right now, 4 teams are the best candidates for the last 2 spots. Texas A&M, St. Johns, Oklahoma, and Virginia. They all have unique strengths and weaknesses and it will come down to what the committee values and how much they factored in conference tournament performance. This is my best guess.

- I will post my final bracket around 5:30 today.

***Bracketology March 16th 2024 Updated 9:30am ET***

 ***Bracketology March 16th 2024***

Seed Power Team

1 1 Houston*

1 2 Purdue*

1 3 UConn*

1 4 North Carolina*

2 5 Tennessee

2 6 Arizona

2 7 Iowa St.

2 8 Marquette

3 9 Baylor

3 10 Creighton

3 11 Illinois

3 12 Duke

4 13 Kentucky

4 14 Kansas

4 15 Auburn*

4 16 Alabama

5 17 South Carolina

5 18 Utah St.

5 19 Texas Tech

5 20 San Diego St.*

6 21 BYU

6 22 Wisconsin

6 23 Florida

6 24 Nevada

7 25 Saint Mary's (CA)*

7 26 Clemson

7 27 Gonzaga

7 28 Washington St.

8 29 Dayton

8 30 Colorado St.

8 31 Boise St.

8 32 Nebraska

9 33 Fla. Atlantic

9 34 Northwestern

9 35 Colorado*

9 36 Texas

10 37 Michigan St.

10 38 Mississippi St.

10 39 TCU

10 40 Oklahoma

11a 41 New Mexico

11b 42 Texas A&M

11 43 Drake*

11c 44 St. John's (NY)

11d 45 Virginia

11 46 Princeton*

12 47 South Fla.*

12 48 Grand Canyon*

12 49 James Madison*

12 50 McNeese*

13 51 VCU*

13 52 Samford*

13 53 Vermont*

13 54 Col. of Charleston*

14 55 Oakland*

14 56 Akron*

14 57 Morehead St.*

14 58 Colgate*

15 59 Weastern Kentucky*

15 60 South Dakota St.*

15 61 Fairfield*

15 62 UC Davis*

16 63 Longwood*

16 64 Stetson*

16a 65 Montana St.*

16a 66 Howard*

16b 67 Grambling St.*

16b 68 Wagner*

Last Four In: Virginia, St. Johns, Texas A&M, New Mexico

First Four Out: Seton Hall, Providence, Pittsburgh, Indiana St.

Next Four Out: Oregon, Ohio St., Kansas St., Wake Forest

Notes:

- Too much action to recount yesterday, but Texas A&M is the only new team in the field this morning and I dropped Seton Hall out. 

- I think the final 2 spots are what is up for grabs now. I think those 2 spots at the moment for me come down to Seton Hall, St. Johns, and Virginia. I gave it to St. Johns and Virginia. Virginia over Seton Hall thanks to better peformance and predictive metrics averages, a better NET. A superior overall Q1/Q2/Q3 record for Virginia 17-10 vs Seton Hall 11-12. Seton Hall's arguments are 5 Q1 wins vs UVA's 2. For now I give the advantage to Virginia.

- However, 3 big bubble things to follow today. NC State and Oregon are bid stealers. If they win their respective conference championship games, Virginia falls out and then next on my list would be St. Johns. Also FAU is still alive in the AAC tournament and if they win, that is a bad that comes back in to play, good news for Seton Hall in my bracket. 

- In my opinion, of the first 4 teams out, the committee could easily put in Seton Hall, Providence, Pittsburgh, or Indiana State instead of one of the teams I have in. Usually I will miss one team, so if I do it would likely come from that group.

***Bracketology March 15th 2024 Updated 11amET***

 ***Bracketology March 15th 2024 Updated 11amET***

Seed Power Team

1 1 Houston*

1 2 Purdue*

1 3 UConn*

1 4 North Carolina*

2 5 Tennessee*

2 6 Arizona*

2 7 Iowa St.

2 8 Marquette

3 9 Baylor

3 10 Creighton

3 11 Duke

3 12 Kentucky

4 13 Kansas

4 14 Illinois

4 15 Alabama

4 16 Auburn

5 17 South Carolina

5 18 Utah St.*

5 19 Texas Tech

5 20 BYU

6 21 Wisconsin

6 22 San Diego St.

6 23 Nevada

6 24 Clemson

7 25 Florida

7 26 Saint Mary's (CA)*

7 27 Gonzaga

7 28 Washington St.

8 29 Dayton

8 30 Colorado St.

8 31 Boise St.

8 32 Nebraska

9 33 Northwestern

9 34 Fla. Atlantic

9 35 Texas

9 36 Michigan St.

10 37 TCU

10 38 Oklahoma

10 39 Colorado

10 40 Virginia

11a 41 Mississippi St.

11b 42 St. John's (NY)

11c 43 Seton Hall

11d 44 New Mexico

11 45 Drake*

11 46 Princeton*

12 47 South Fla.*

12 48 Grand Canyon*

12 49 James Madison*

12 50 McNeese*

13 51 VCU*

13 52 Samford*

13 53 UC Irvine*

13 54 Vermont*

14 55 Col. of Charleston*

14 56 Oakland*

14 57 Akron*

14 58 Sam Houston St.*

15 59 Morehead St.*

15 60 Colgate*

15 61 Quinnipiac*

15 62 South Dakota St*

16 63 Longwood*

16 64 Stetson*

16a 65 Norfolk St.*

16a 66 Montana St.*

16b 67 Grambling St.*

16b 68 Wagner*

Last Four In: New Mexico, Seton Hall, St. Johns, Mississippi St.

First Four Out: Texas A&M, Providence, Pittsburgh, Indiana St.

Next Four Out: Ohio St., Kansas St., Wake Forest, Oregon

Notes:

- Amazingly after a wild day of lots of bubble action I kept the same teams in the field that I had 24 hours ago. Dayton lost yesterday so the A-10 will be a 2 bid league so that stunk for bubble teams. FAU could still win the AAC so there is still hope for one more spot to open up. Since most of the teams on the bottom of my bracket won, they didnt fall out. Seton Hall though did slide down several spots to my 2nd team in. I think any team from Colorado down should still feel like they need to win to really lock up a spot though.

- At this point, you also are looking at what teams that are in the first 8 out are still playing and also any bid thieves still out there. Of my first 8 out, Texas A&M, Providence, Pittsburgh, Ohio St., and Oregon are still playing. I dont think Ohio St. or Oregon have a realistic chance to get in short of winning their tournaments. But A&M, Providence, and Pitt could maybe. Thus assuming no major conference bid thieves really the last 2/3 spots of the bracket are still subject to the most change. Of course shuffling could still occur as well. So while Colorado, Virginia, Mississippi St., St. Johns, and New Mexico all won yesterday, another win would be advisable with the bubble still so fluid.

Todays Bubble Games:

ECU vs South Florida - The AAC tournament quarterfinals are today. I dont consider USF an at-large possible team at the moment so they need to win this tournament to have a chance. They were the best team this season in the league, but FAU is a tourney lock. So to make an easier path for FAU, bubble teams should pull for USF to bow out of this tournament.

Mississippi St vs Tennessee - Miss St. will probably be in even with a loss here. But a win would erase any doubt. A loss makes things a bit more dicey.

St. Johns vs UConn - This would be a huge feather in the Johnnies resume and probably make it very hard for them to make the field. A loss leaves them at the mercy of the bubble.

Ohio St vs Illinois - Ohio St may be the hottest team in the Big 10. I dont think they can make the tournament though unless winning the conference tournament but a run to the title game may make it more interesting. They are a legitimate bid thief team.

Pittsburgh vs UNC - A win here would get Pitt to 5-5 in Q1 and 5-3 and Q2. That is pretty good. They do have 2 Q3 losses though, but pretty decent metrics (performance average 46.5, predictive average 36). A win here could get them in, but it will be close.

Texas A&M vs Kentucky - The Aggies are playing well but with Memphis losing and falling back to a NET of 76, they now have 5 Q3 losses. No team has made the field with more than 3 per my records. A win here would get them to 6-6 in Q1, 7-2 in Q2 hefty numbers for sure. I think it is a must win, but their resume will be hotly contested either way.

North Texas vs FAU - Bubble nation will be pulling hard for FAU to keep the AAC a 1 bid league.

Oregon vs Arizona - Even a win here will likely not be enough for Oregon. There are in my net 4 out, but realistically they have to win this tournament.

Providence vs Marquette - A win here would get Providence to 7-8 in Q1 and 3-4 in Q2. Not bad at all. They also have no bad losses. But 11 of their 21 wins are in Q4, so their Q1/Q2/Q3 record is only 10-12. The metrics are ok 51.5 average for results based and 48 for predictive. A win here would make it hard to keep them out.

NC State vs Virginia - UVA has missed two Q1 opportunities in the ACC tournament with Clemson and Duke getting upset. If nothing else, UVA should take the opportunity to eliminate a potential bid thief in NC State. A win here would be UVAs 9th Q2 win along with 2 Q1s. The results based metrics are good at 30.5 the predictive metrics still lag at 57.6 but have improved. UVA like Miss St is probably in regardless, but a loss and all the teams below them winning today would make things more nerve wracking.

Colorado vs Washington St. - Like UVA and Miss St I think Colorado is probably in regardless. But a win here would probably remove any remaining doubt.

New Mexico vs Colorado St. - New Mexicos win last night kept them in the field and with a NET of 23 it is hard to imagine them not making it. But their Q1/Q2 records are good but not great at 4-6 and 3-1 and they have a Q3 and Q4 loss with mediocre performance metrics average of 48. This would be a 5th Q1 win and it would be hard to keep them out. A loss and they may still be ok, but have to hope Texas A&M, Providence and Pitt lose to feel safe.

***Bracketology March 14th 2024 Updated 11:15am ET***

 ***Bracketology March 14th 2024 Updated 11:15am ET***

Seed Power Team

1 1 Houston*

1 2 Purdue*

1 3 UConn*

1 4 North Carolina*

2 5 Tennessee*

2 6 Arizona*

2 7 Iowa St.

2 8 Marquette

3 9 Baylor

3 10 Creighton

3 11 Duke

3 12 Kentucky

4 13 Kansas

4 14 Illinois

4 15 Alabama

4 16 BYU

5 17 Auburn

5 18 South Carolina

5 19 Utah St.*

5 20 San Diego St.

6 21 Texas Tech

6 22 Wisconsin

6 23 Nevada

6 24 Dayton

7 25 Clemson

7 26 Saint Mary's (CA)*

7 27 Florida

7 28 Gonzaga

8 29 Washington St.

8 30 Boise St.

8 31 Colorado St.

8 32 Nebraska

9 33 Northwestern

9 34 Fla. Atlantic

9 35 Texas

9 36 TCU

10 37 Oklahoma

10 38 Michigan St.

10 39 Seton Hall

10 40 Mississippi St.

11a 41 Virginia

11b 42 Colorado

11 43 Drake*

11c 44 St. John's (NY)

11d 45 New Mexico

11 46 Princeton*

12 47 Richmond*

12 48 South Fla.*

12 49 Grand Canyon*

12 50 James Madison*

13 51 McNeese*

13 52 Samford*

13 53 UC Irvine*

13 54 Vermont*

14 55 Col. of Charleston*

14 56 Oakland*

14 57 Toledo*

14 58 Morehead St.*

15 59 Sam Houston St.*

15 60 Colgate*

15 61 Quinnipiac*

15 62 South Dakota St.*

16 63 Longwood*

16 64 Stetson*

16a 65 Norfolk St.*

16a 66 Montana St.*

16b 67 Grambling St.*

16b 68 Wagner*

Last Four In: New Mexico, St. Johns, Colorado, Virginia

First Four Out: Texas A&M, Wake Forest, Indiana St, Kansas St.

Next Four Out: Providence, Villanova, Iowa, Pittsburgh

Notes:

- No major bubble moves yesterday. Villanova almost fell off the bubble but got a late 3 pointer to beat 3 win Depaul. Kansas State moved up to my 4th team out after their win over Texas. I still dont have Cincy in my first 8 out or Utah, but they are 9/10 on my line. It may just be too big a hill to overcome for these two to get an at large bid.

Bubble Games:

Today may be the biggest bubble day of the year. So buckle up!

St. Josephs vs Richmond. Richmond isnt on the bubble for an at-large but they won the A-10 regular season championship and they along with Loyola may represent the biggest threat to win the tournament over Dayton. Bubble teams should pull for Richmond to get knocked out earlier to make an easier path for Dayton.

Minnesota vs Michigan State - I think Michigan State is basically a lock and even a loss here would only be quad 2. But MSU is only 7 teams deep into my bracket, so they probably should just win to avoid any issues.

Mississippi St vs LSU - Mississippi State's resume is really not that great. 3-8 vs Q1, 3-3 vs Q2, they have a Q4 loss. But they do have wins at home over Tennessee and Auburn and a neutral court win over Washington St. This would be a quad 2 game, so not a huge loss if they do. But a loss here leaves them in a more perilous position to be subject to bubble chaos. A win would probably lock them in.

St. Johns vs Seton Hall - St. Johns neesd this more than Seton Hall. Seton Hall may be ok even with a loss but a win is advised to avoid worry. St. Johns probably needs a win here to keep their spot as they are too close to the cut line with too many bubble teams have opportunities. They may still get a bid with a loss if chaos is not bad and things work out for Dayton/FAU to win their tournaments. 

Wake Forest vs Pittsburgh - This is a loser leaves town match most likely. Pitt probably has to win the ACC tournament any way but a win here and a win over presumably UNC tomorrow would give them 5 Q1 wins and they would be under heavy consideration. Wake Forest also needs to win and this could end up being Q1 and that would be a very important 2nd one for WF. 

Ohio St vs Iowa - Ohio State is hot but it is probably too little too late. But a run to the B1G final could make their case interesting. Iowa has to win to keep alive and then pick up a win tomorrow over Illinois to have any chance.

Ole Miss vs Texas A&M - Ole Miss is out of it but A&M has to have it to keep their chances. A win here and a win tomorrow over Kentucky could be enough.

Providence vs Creighton - A win here would be the 6th Q1 win for Providence and they have no bad losses. It would make a compelling case but still may not be enough pending on other bubble action. But a win here and maybe one more tomorrow could be enough.

Kansas State vs Iowa State - KSU has themselves back in the mix after beating Texas last night. A win here woudl be KSU's 6th Q1 to go with 5 Q2s and only one bad loss. This could be enough to get them right there although this and a win in the semis may be required.

Duquense vs Dayton - Huge game for bubble nation. Dayton winning the A-10 tournament would open up another at-large spot not currently accounted for by me and most bracketologists.

Boston College vs Virginia - Huge game for UVA. A win may be enough to lock up a bid, a loss would leave them periously close to the cut line and dependent on favorable bubble scenarios. 

Cincy vs Baylor - The Bearcats probably have to make it to the Final to have a real shot.

Villanova vs Marquette - Nova survived last night and have to win this one to have a chance. They may also need to win in the semis to really have a real shot.

New Mexico vs Boise State - Huge opportunity for New Mexico. A loss probably means they fall out of my bracket tomorrow a win would really bolster their resume. 

Utah vs Colorado - Utah probably has to win the PAC-12 tournament. Colorado has to have this one I think to keep their spot at the end of the day.

Enjoy the best sports day of the year IMO!

***Bracketology March 13th 2024 Updated 10am ET***

 ***Bracketology March 13th 2024 Updated 10am ET***

Seed Power Team

1 1 Houston*

1 2 Purdue*

1 3 UConn*

1 4 North Carolina*

2 5 Tennessee*

2 6 Arizona*

2 7 Iowa St.

2 8 Marquette

3 9 Baylor

3 10 Kansas

3 11 Creighton

3 12 Duke

4 13 Kentucky

4 14 Illinois

4 15 Alabama

4 16 Auburn

5 17 BYU

5 18 South Carolina

5 19 Utah St.*

5 20 San Diego St.

6 21 Texas Tech

6 22 Wisconsin

6 23 Nevada

6 24 Clemson

7 25 Dayton

7 26 Saint Mary's (CA)*

7 27 Florida

7 28 Gonzaga

8 29 Washington St.

8 30 Boise St.

8 31 Colorado St.

8 32 Texas

9 33 Oklahoma

9 34 Nebraska

9 35 Northwestern

9 36 Fla. Atlantic

10 37 Michigan St.

10 38 TCU

10 39 Seton Hall

10 40 Mississippi St.

11a 41 Virginia

11b 42 Colorado

11 43 Drake*

11c 44 St. John's (NY)

11d 45 New Mexico

11 46 Princeton*

12 47 Richmond*

12 48 South Fla.*

12 49 Grand Canyon*

12 50 James Madison*

13 51 McNeese*

13 52 Samford*

13 53 UC Irvine*

13 54 Vermont*

14 55 Col. of Charleston*

14 56 Oakland*

14 57 Toledo*

14 58 Morehead St.*

15 59 Sam Houston State*

15 60 Montana*

15 61 Colgate*

15 62 Quinnipiac*

16 63 South Dakota St.*

16 64 Longwood*

16a 65 Stetson*

16a 66 Norfolk St.*

16b 67 Wagner8

16b 68 Grambling St.*

Last Four In: New Mexico, St. Johns, Colorado, Virginia

First Four Out: Texas A&M, Wake Forest, Indiana St., Providence

Next Four Out: Villanova, Iowa, Pittsburgh, Kansas St.

Notes:

Bubble action kicks off in full swing today.

Todays Bubble Games:

Notre Dame vs Wake Forest - Wake has to win this one to stay in the convo but it wont put them in the field. A win here and a win tomorrow over Pittsburgh could have them close, but they may need to make the finals to feel good.

Oklahoma vs TCU - TCU is probably fine. But win this one and erase any minimal doubts. 

Georgetown vs Providence - A must win like Wake Forest. A win keeps them alive, a win here and tomorrow over Creighton will have them right there, a trip to the finals would likely put them in.

Kansas State vs Texas - KSU probably has to make the finals to have any shot.

Air Force vs New Mexico - A loss would end the chances for New Mexico. A win keeps the chances alive but would require at least a win in the QF over Boise State to likely keep their spot.

Depaul vs Villanova - Another must win situation. A loss drops them out a win advances them to the QFs to play Marquette where a win is a necessity. 

Arizona State vs Utah - Utah must win this and face fellow bubbler Colorado tomorrow and win that one then a likely semifinal date with Washington State. A trip to the final is a necessity and even that may not be enough.

***Bracketology March 12th 2024 Updated 9am ET***

 Seed Power Team

1 1 Houston*

1 2 Purdue*

1 3 UConn*

1 4 North Carolina*

2 5 Tennessee*

2 6 Arizona*

2 7 Iowa St.

2 8 Marquette

3 9 Baylor

3 10 Kansas

3 11 Creighton

3 12 Duke

4 13 Kentucky

4 14 Illinois

4 15 Alabama

4 16 Auburn

5 17 BYU

5 18 South Carolina

5 19 Utah St.*

5 20 San Diego St.

6 21 Texas Tech

6 22 Wisconsin

6 23 Nevada

6 24 Clemson

7 25 Dayton

7 26 Florida

7 27 Gonzaga

7 28 Washington St.

8 29 Boise St.

8 30 Saint Mary's (CA)*

8 31 Colorado St.

8 32 Texas

9 33 Oklahoma

9 34 Nebraska

9 35 Northwestern

9 36 Fla. Atlantic

10 37 Michigan St.

10 38 TCU

10 39 Seton Hall

10 40 Mississippi St.

11a 41 Virginia

11b 42 Colorado

11 43 Drake

11c 44 St. John's (NY)

11d 45 New Mexico

11 46 Princeton*

12 47 Richmond*

12 48 South Fla.*

12 49 Grand Canyon*

12 50 James Madison*

13 51 McNeese*

13 52 Samford*

13 53 UC Irvine*

13 54 Vermont*

14 55 Col. of Charleston*

14 56 Oakland*

14 57 Toledo*

14 58 Morehead St.*

15 59 Sam Houston State*

15 60 Montana*

15 61 Colgate*

15 62 Quinnipiac*

16 63 South Dakota St.*

16 64 Longwood*

16a 65 Stetson*

16a 66 Norfolk St.*

16b 67 Merrimack*

16b 68 Grambling St.*

Last Four In: New Mexico, St. Johns, Colorado, Virginia

First Four Out: Texas A&M, Wake Forest, Indiana St., Providence

Next Four Out: Villanova, Iowa, Pittsburgh, Kansas St.

Notes:

- Only change to the bracket this morning is I switched Gonzaga and Washington St in the S Curve after Gonzaga added a quad 2 win last night over San Francisco. Bubble teams can rejoice that there will no bid stealer in the WCC.

- By my count that leaves 7 to maybe 8 conferences that could produce bid stealers, not counting the AAC and A10 where I already have bid stealers (South Florida/Richmond) baked in. The 8th is the Ivy league where some argument will be made for Princeton to get an at large if they say lose in the championship game. I dont think Princetons resume is good enough IMO, but you never know with these mid majors. Princeton has not played a single game vs at at-large caliber opponent and no quad 1 games. So I think they need to win the tournament to get in and if they do there is at least no worry about them being a bid stealers. The other 7 bid stealer leagues are power conferences and the Mountain West (ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big 10, Pac-12, SEC, and MWC). Typically we dont see bid stealers in the big conference tournaments but occasionally we do. The MWC already has 6 teams in my field so the chance of a bid stealer there is low, although New Mexico could count as one if they win the tournament as they are out in some brackets although my last team in. UNLV is the real threat to steal a bid there.

- No real bubble impact games today, but the Big 12 and ACC begin their conference tournaments. Tomorrow starts to gear up with bubble action and we are in it thick the rest of the week, so enjoy one more quiet day before the real madness begins.

*** Bracketology March 11th 2024 Updated 12pm ET ***

 *** Bracketology March 11th 2024 Updated 12pm ET ***

Seed Power Team

1 1 Houston*

1 2 Purdue*

1 3 UConn*

1 4 North Carolina*

2 5 Tennessee*

2 6 Arizona*

2 7 Iowa St.

2 8 Marquette

3 9 Baylor

3 10 Kansas

3 11 Creighton

3 12 Duke

4 13 Kentucky

4 14 Illinois

4 15 Alabama

4 16 Auburn

5 17 BYU

5 18 South Carolina

5 19 Utah St.*

5 20 San Diego St.

6 21 Texas Tech

6 22 Wisconsin

6 23 Nevada

6 24 Clemson

7 25 Dayton

7 26 Florida

7 27 Washington St.

7 28 Gonzaga

8 29 Boise St.

8 30 Saint Mary's (CA)*

8 31 Colorado St.

8 32 Texas

9 33 Oklahoma

9 34 Nebraska

9 35 Northwestern

9 36 Fla. Atlantic

10 37 Michigan St.

10 38 TCU

10 39 Seton Hall

10 40 Mississippi St.

11a 41 Virginia

11b 42 Colorado

11 43 Drake*

11c 44 St. John's (NY)

11d 45 New Mexico

11 46 Princeton*

12 47 Richmond*

12 48 South Fla.*

12 49 Grand Canyon*

12 50 James Madison*

13 51 McNeese*

13 52 Samford*

13 53 UC Irvine*

13 54 Vermont*

14 55 Col. of Charleston*

14 56 Oakland*

14 57 Toledo*

14 58 Morehead St.*

15 59 Sam Houston State*

15 60 Montana*

15 61 Colgate*

15 62 Quinnipiac*

16 63 South Dakota St.*

16 64 Longwood*

16a 65 Stetson*

16a 66 Norfolk St.*

16b 67 Merrimack*

16b 68 Grambling St.*

Last Four In (1st teams listed is last team in): New Mexico, St. Johns, Colorado, Virginia

First Four Out: Texas A&M, Wake Forest, Indiana St., Providence

Next Four Out: Villanova, Iowa, Pittsburgh, Kansas St.

Notes:

- Indiana State could be a source of contention this week. They lost to Drake in the MVC title game yesterday. The resume is borderline for an at-large bid. 

Good: NET of 29, Performance metrics average of 39.5, ok predictive average of 41.5.

Bad: 1-4 vs Q1, only 5-5 vs Q1/Q2, 1 Q4 loss. Only win over an at-large worth tourney teams is over Drake at home.

At the end of the day I dont think their resume is deserving of an at large bid. But with these mid-major teams the committee can sometimes decide it is and evaluate their resumes a little different then power schools. But to be in my bracket Indiana State is going to need some major things to swing their way this week.

- If you are one of the last 4/5 teams in the field, even though you may be relatively safe you cant be considered a lock with so much potential conference tournament chaos to play out. Thus avoid bad losses and win a quality game in the conference tournament and you probably are in good shape. 

- I will update the bracket every day and give key game analysis each day. As of this moment, I think these teams in order of my ranking are battling for 6 at-large bids (Seton Hall, Mississippi St., Virginia, Colorado, St. Johns, New Mexico, Texas A&M, Wake Forest, Indiana State, Providence, Villanova, Iowa). I think realistically from Pittsburgh (7th team out) down you probably have to win your conference tournament. Also keep in mind though if FAU and Dayton win their tournaments, two spots open up, and today that would put Texas A&M and Wake Forest in my bracket and have Indiana State as the 1st team out. 

Important Games Today:

- Two automatic bids with the A-Sun final and SoCon final.

- Two games for bubble teams to follow. St. Marys plays Santa Clara and Gonzaga plays San Francisco in the WCC semis. If St. Marys or Gonzaga do not get the automatic bid that is a spot lost for bubble teams. So bubble teams should pull hard for St. Marys and Gonzaga tonight.

***Bracketology March 10th 2024 12:30pm***

 ***Bracketology March 10th 2024 12:30pm***

Seed Power Team

1 1 Houston*

1 2 Purdue*

1 3 UConn*

1 4 North Carolina*

2 5 Tennessee*

2 6 Arizona*

2 7 Marquette

2 8 Iowa St.

3 9 Baylor

3 10 Kansas

3 11 Creighton

3 12 Duke

4 13 Kentucky

4 14 Illinois

4 15 Alabama

4 16 Auburn

5 17 BYU

5 18 South Carolina

5 19 Utah St.*

5 20 San Diego St.

6 21 Wisconsin

6 22 Texas Tech

6 23 Nevada

6 24 Clemson

7 25 Dayton

7 26 Florida

7 27 Washington St.

7 28 Saint Mary's (CA)*

8 29 Gonzaga

8 30 Northwestern

8 31 Boise St.

8 32 Colorado St.

9 33 Texas

9 34 Oklahoma

9 35 Michigan St.

9 36 Nebraska

10 37 Fla. Atlantic

10 38 TCU

10 39 Mississippi St.

10 40 Seton Hall

11a 41 Virginia

11b 42 Colorado

11c 43 St. John's (NY)

11d 44 New Mexico

11 45 Indiana St.*

11 46 Princeton*

12 47 South Fla.*

12 48 Richmond*

12 49 Grand Canyon*

12 50 McNeese*

13 51 App State*

13 52 Samford*

13 53 UC Irvine*

13 54 Vermont*

14 55 Col. of Charleston*

14 56 Oakland*

14 57 Toledo*

14 58 Eastern Washington*

15 59 Morehead St.*

15 60 Sam Houston St.*

15 61 UNC Asheville*

15 62 Colgate*

16 63 Quinnipiac*

16 64 South Dakota St.*

16a 65 Stetson*

16a 66 Norfolk St.8

16b 67 Merrimack*

16b 68 Grambling St.*

Last Four In: New Mexico, St. Johns, Colorado, Virginia

First Four Out: Texas A&M, Villanova, Iowa, Wake Forest

Next Four Out: Providence, Pittsburgh, Drake, Kansas St.

Notes:

Commentary/Analysis tomorrow. 

***Bracketology March 8th 2024 Updated 9:30am***

 ***Bracketology March 8th 2024 Updated 9:30am***

Seed Power Team

1 1 Purdue*

1 2 Houston*

1 3 UConn*

1 4 Tennessee*

2 5 Arizona*

2 6 North Carolina*

2 7 Iowa St.

2 8 Baylor

3 9 Marquette

3 10 Kansas

3 11 Duke

3 12 Creighton

4 13 Alabama

4 14 Illinois

4 15 Auburn

4 16 Kentucky

5 17 BYU

5 18 San Diego St.

5 19 Clemson

5 20 South Carolina

6 21 Florida

6 22 Wisconsin

6 23 Utah St.*

6 24 Texas Tech

7 25 Washington St.

7 26 Nevada

7 27 Dayton

7 28 Saint Mary's (CA)*

8 29 Oklahoma

8 30 Gonzaga

8 31 Northwestern

8 32 Colorado St.

9 33 Michigan St.

9 34 Boise St.

9 35 Texas

9 36 Nebraska

10 37 TCU

10 38 Fla. Atlantic

10 39 Mississippi St.

10 40 Virginia

11a 41 Seton Hall

11b 42 Colorado

11c 43 Villanova

11d 44 New Mexico

11 45 Indiana St.*

11 46 South Fla.*

12 47 Richmond*

12 48 Princeton*

12 49 Grand Canyon*

12 50 McNeese*

13 51 App State*

13 52 Samford*

13 53 UC Irvine*

13 54 Vermont*

14 55 Col. of Charleston*

14 56 Oakland*

14 57 Akron*

14 58 High Point*

15 59 Eastern Washington*

15 60 Morehead St.*

15 61 Sam Houston St.*

15 62 Colgate*

16 63 Quinnipiac*

16 64 South Dakota St.*

16a 65 Stetson*

16a 66 Norfolk St.*

16b 67 Merrimack*

16b 68 Grambling St.*

Last Four In: New Mexico, Villanova, Colorado, Seton Hall

First Four Out: St. Johns, Providence, Iowa, Texas A&M

Next Four Out: Utah, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Drake

Notes:

- A mixed night for the two Pac-12 bubble teams. Colorado helped themselves with a Q1 road win at Oregon. This moved the Buffs from my 2nd team out to my 3rd team in today. Colorado is still only 1-5 against likely NCAA at-large teams which hurts them, but the other variables are decent enough to warrant inclusion. They have to win at Oregon State Saturday though to avoid a bad loss and keep their bid in my bracket heading into the conference tournaments. The other bubble team Utah wasnt as fortunate. They lost at Oregon State picking up a Q3 loss at a bad time. They finish up at Oregon so a chance to get another Q1 win, but they fell out of my bracket to the 5th team out this morning. A win at Oregon would get them back closer but they probably need at least 1 more quality win on top of that in the PAC-12 tournament to have a realistic chance now.

Big Bubble Games This Weekend:

- Missouri Valley Tournament. This kicks into full swing tonight with the quarterfinals as Indiana State battles Missouri State. I am not sure if Indiana States resume is good enough for at-large inclusion or not. They are 1-3 vs Q1 and 4-1 vs Q2, that is 5-4 so not bad. They have 1 Q4 loss though and no wins over at-large worthy teams. The metrics arent bad so they have a shot at inclusion, unless they lose to someone not named Drake or Bradley. Bubble teams should pull for Indiana State to win this tournament this weekend.

- Georgetown @ St. Johns - A must win for St. Johns. A win may not put them in, but a loss would make it very difficult. They need to win this one and probably pick up at least one quality win in the Big East tournament to have a chance.

- Texas A&M @ Ole Miss - Ole Miss has fallen far enough down that they likely have to win out to at least the SEC semis to have a shot. A&M would pick up a 5th Q2 win here to give them 11 Q1/Q2 wins. But they have 4 Q3 losses. They probably need to win this one and 1 or 2 quality wins in the SEC tournament to get a bid.

- Iowa State @ Kansas State - KSU is not even in my first 8 out right now. But this would be a Q1 win and if they stack this with a couple quality wins in the Big 12 tournament they would be in the convo.

Creighton @ Villanova - Huge game for Nova. A win would put them in decent shape heading into the Big East tournament. They would have to avoid a bad loss, but picking up 1 quality win there and they are probably in. However a loss and they fall to 17-14, only 3 games above .500, which is usually a disqualifier though not always. A loss would mean they probably have to at least get to the semifinals to have a decent chance. Odd resume.

South Carolina @ Mississippi St. - I think Miss St is probably in regardless of this although a loss here and a bad loss in the SEC tournament would make things perilous. Win here and most doubt is removed.

South Florida @ Tulsa - USF has an odd resume as well. They have to win here. But a win here and avoiding a bad loss in the AAC tournament would present an interesting case to the committee.

Colorado @ Oregon St. - As described above, a must win for Colorado to not pickup a bad loss right now. Win here and pick up a quality win in the PAC-12 tournament and the Buffs are likely in.

Clemson @ Wake Forest - A must win for Wake which would give them a third Q1 win to go with 5 Q2 wins and only one bad loss. But they likely have to also pick up at least 1 quality win in the ACC tournament to have any shot.

Utah @ Oregon - As described above a must win Q1 opportunity for Utah. But they likely have to stack this with at least 1 more quality win in the PAC-12 tournament.

NC State @ Pittsburgh - This isnt a quality win opportunity for Pitt, so they will likely need to pick up at least 2 quality wins in the ACC tournament on top of winning this one.

UConn @ Providence - Win this one and Providence is back in the picture and maybe back in my field. They need to win and maybe pick up one more quality win in the Big East tournament to get a bid.

Georgia Tech @ Virginia - A must win for Virginia. They also cant afford to pick up a bad loss right now. Win this one and avoid a bad loss in the ACC tournament and they may be in, win this one and pick up a quality win in the ACC tournament would likely be a lock.

Depaul @ Seton Hall - A must win for Seton Hall, a loss would be disastrous. A win and 1 quality win in the Big East tournament would have them sitting pretty.

New Mexico @ Utah State - A big opportunity for New Mexico. A win here would would put them in pretty good shape. But even with the win, they may need one more quality win in the MWC tournament.

A huge bubble today tomorrow, enjoy. 

***Bracketology March 7th 2024 Updated 11:00AM ET***

 ***Bracketology March 7th 2024 Updated 11:00AM ET***Seed Power Team

1 1 Purdue*

1 2 Houston*

1 3 UConn*

1 4 Tennessee*

2 5 Arizona*

2 6 North Carolina*

2 7 Iowa St.

2 8 Baylor

3 9 Marquette

3 10 Kansas

3 11 Duke

3 12 Creighton

4 13 Alabama

4 14 Illinois

4 15 Auburn

4 16 Kentucky

5 17 BYU

5 18 San Diego St.

5 19 Clemson

5 20 South Carolina

6 21 Florida

6 22 Washington St.

6 23 Wisconsin

6 24 Utah St.*

7 25 Nevada

7 26 Dayton

7 27 Texas Tech

7 28 Saint Mary's (CA)*

8 29 Oklahoma

8 30 Gonzaga

8 31 Northwestern

8 32 Colorado St.

9 33 Michigan St.

9 34 Boise St.

9 35 Texas

9 36 Nebraska

10 37 TCU

10 38 Fla. Atlantic

10 39 Mississippi St.

10 40 Virginia

11a 41 Seton Hall

11b 42 Utah

11c 43 Villanova

11d 44 New Mexico

11 45 Indiana St.*

11 46 South Fla.*

12 47 Richmond*

12 48 Princeton*

12 49 Grand Canyon*

12 50 McNeese*

13 51 App State*

13 52 Samford*

13 53 Louisiana Tech*

13 54 UC Irvine*

14 55 Vermont*

14 56 Col. of Charleston*

14 57 Akron*

14 58 High Point*

15 59 Oakland*

15 60 Eastern Washington*

15 61 Morehead St.*

15 62 Colgate*

16 63 Quinnipiac*

16 64 South Dakota St.*

16a 65 Stetson*

16a 66 Norfolk St.*

16b 67 Merrimack*

16b 68 Grambling St.*

Last Four In: New Mexico, Villanova, Utah, Seton Hall

First Four Out: St. Johns, Colorado, Providence, Iowa

Next Four Out: Texas A&M, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Drake

Notes:

- No changes to the teams in the field today, although there was some shuffling in the bottom of the bracket. Seton Hall moved up a few spots after beating Villanova last night and Nova fell a spot. Texa A&M moved up a couple spots in the next four out.

- Bubble Games Today:

Colorado @ Oregon - Maybe a bubble elimination game here. Colorado is my 2nd team out, this is a Q1 win opportunity for the Buffs. Oregon is not even in the first 8 out meaning they probably have to run the table to the PAC-12 championship to have any chance. A win here by Colorado would give them a 2 Q1 win to go with 7 Q2 wins and no bad losses. It would probably be enough to put them in the field tomorrow. A loss would not be a bad loss, but is the last chance for Colorado to enhance their resume before the conference tournament as the reg season finale is a Q3 game at Oregon St. So a big chance/opportunity tonight for Colorado.

Utah @ Oregon St. - A must win for Utah. They are in my last four in but are out of others brackets meaning they are right at the edge. This is a Q3 game so they cant add a 2nd bad loss this time of year. They need to win this and then they get a Q1 chance at Oregon to end the season. 2 wins to end the season would likely have Utah in my bracket heading into the Pac-12 tournament but they would still need to avoid a bad loss and adding a quality win would be advisable.