***Bracketology March 15th 2024 Updated 11amET***

 ***Bracketology March 15th 2024 Updated 11amET***

Seed Power Team

1 1 Houston*

1 2 Purdue*

1 3 UConn*

1 4 North Carolina*

2 5 Tennessee*

2 6 Arizona*

2 7 Iowa St.

2 8 Marquette

3 9 Baylor

3 10 Creighton

3 11 Duke

3 12 Kentucky

4 13 Kansas

4 14 Illinois

4 15 Alabama

4 16 Auburn

5 17 South Carolina

5 18 Utah St.*

5 19 Texas Tech

5 20 BYU

6 21 Wisconsin

6 22 San Diego St.

6 23 Nevada

6 24 Clemson

7 25 Florida

7 26 Saint Mary's (CA)*

7 27 Gonzaga

7 28 Washington St.

8 29 Dayton

8 30 Colorado St.

8 31 Boise St.

8 32 Nebraska

9 33 Northwestern

9 34 Fla. Atlantic

9 35 Texas

9 36 Michigan St.

10 37 TCU

10 38 Oklahoma

10 39 Colorado

10 40 Virginia

11a 41 Mississippi St.

11b 42 St. John's (NY)

11c 43 Seton Hall

11d 44 New Mexico

11 45 Drake*

11 46 Princeton*

12 47 South Fla.*

12 48 Grand Canyon*

12 49 James Madison*

12 50 McNeese*

13 51 VCU*

13 52 Samford*

13 53 UC Irvine*

13 54 Vermont*

14 55 Col. of Charleston*

14 56 Oakland*

14 57 Akron*

14 58 Sam Houston St.*

15 59 Morehead St.*

15 60 Colgate*

15 61 Quinnipiac*

15 62 South Dakota St*

16 63 Longwood*

16 64 Stetson*

16a 65 Norfolk St.*

16a 66 Montana St.*

16b 67 Grambling St.*

16b 68 Wagner*

Last Four In: New Mexico, Seton Hall, St. Johns, Mississippi St.

First Four Out: Texas A&M, Providence, Pittsburgh, Indiana St.

Next Four Out: Ohio St., Kansas St., Wake Forest, Oregon

Notes:

- Amazingly after a wild day of lots of bubble action I kept the same teams in the field that I had 24 hours ago. Dayton lost yesterday so the A-10 will be a 2 bid league so that stunk for bubble teams. FAU could still win the AAC so there is still hope for one more spot to open up. Since most of the teams on the bottom of my bracket won, they didnt fall out. Seton Hall though did slide down several spots to my 2nd team in. I think any team from Colorado down should still feel like they need to win to really lock up a spot though.

- At this point, you also are looking at what teams that are in the first 8 out are still playing and also any bid thieves still out there. Of my first 8 out, Texas A&M, Providence, Pittsburgh, Ohio St., and Oregon are still playing. I dont think Ohio St. or Oregon have a realistic chance to get in short of winning their tournaments. But A&M, Providence, and Pitt could maybe. Thus assuming no major conference bid thieves really the last 2/3 spots of the bracket are still subject to the most change. Of course shuffling could still occur as well. So while Colorado, Virginia, Mississippi St., St. Johns, and New Mexico all won yesterday, another win would be advisable with the bubble still so fluid.

Todays Bubble Games:

ECU vs South Florida - The AAC tournament quarterfinals are today. I dont consider USF an at-large possible team at the moment so they need to win this tournament to have a chance. They were the best team this season in the league, but FAU is a tourney lock. So to make an easier path for FAU, bubble teams should pull for USF to bow out of this tournament.

Mississippi St vs Tennessee - Miss St. will probably be in even with a loss here. But a win would erase any doubt. A loss makes things a bit more dicey.

St. Johns vs UConn - This would be a huge feather in the Johnnies resume and probably make it very hard for them to make the field. A loss leaves them at the mercy of the bubble.

Ohio St vs Illinois - Ohio St may be the hottest team in the Big 10. I dont think they can make the tournament though unless winning the conference tournament but a run to the title game may make it more interesting. They are a legitimate bid thief team.

Pittsburgh vs UNC - A win here would get Pitt to 5-5 in Q1 and 5-3 and Q2. That is pretty good. They do have 2 Q3 losses though, but pretty decent metrics (performance average 46.5, predictive average 36). A win here could get them in, but it will be close.

Texas A&M vs Kentucky - The Aggies are playing well but with Memphis losing and falling back to a NET of 76, they now have 5 Q3 losses. No team has made the field with more than 3 per my records. A win here would get them to 6-6 in Q1, 7-2 in Q2 hefty numbers for sure. I think it is a must win, but their resume will be hotly contested either way.

North Texas vs FAU - Bubble nation will be pulling hard for FAU to keep the AAC a 1 bid league.

Oregon vs Arizona - Even a win here will likely not be enough for Oregon. There are in my net 4 out, but realistically they have to win this tournament.

Providence vs Marquette - A win here would get Providence to 7-8 in Q1 and 3-4 in Q2. Not bad at all. They also have no bad losses. But 11 of their 21 wins are in Q4, so their Q1/Q2/Q3 record is only 10-12. The metrics are ok 51.5 average for results based and 48 for predictive. A win here would make it hard to keep them out.

NC State vs Virginia - UVA has missed two Q1 opportunities in the ACC tournament with Clemson and Duke getting upset. If nothing else, UVA should take the opportunity to eliminate a potential bid thief in NC State. A win here would be UVAs 9th Q2 win along with 2 Q1s. The results based metrics are good at 30.5 the predictive metrics still lag at 57.6 but have improved. UVA like Miss St is probably in regardless, but a loss and all the teams below them winning today would make things more nerve wracking.

Colorado vs Washington St. - Like UVA and Miss St I think Colorado is probably in regardless. But a win here would probably remove any remaining doubt.

New Mexico vs Colorado St. - New Mexicos win last night kept them in the field and with a NET of 23 it is hard to imagine them not making it. But their Q1/Q2 records are good but not great at 4-6 and 3-1 and they have a Q3 and Q4 loss with mediocre performance metrics average of 48. This would be a 5th Q1 win and it would be hard to keep them out. A loss and they may still be ok, but have to hope Texas A&M, Providence and Pitt lose to feel safe.