Friday, February 23, 2024

***Bracketology February 23rd 2024 11:30am***

***Bracketology February 23rd 2024 11:30am***

Seed Power Team

1 1 Purdue*

1 2 Houston*

1 3 UConn*

1 4 Arizona*

2 5 North Carolina*

2 6 Tennessee

2 7 Marquette

2 8 Kansas

3 9 Alabama*

3 10 Iowa St.

3 11 Duke

3 12 Creighton

4 13 Baylor

4 14 San Diego St.

4 15 Auburn

4 16 Wisconsin

5 17 Illinois

5 18 Texas Tech

5 19 Clemson

5 20 BYU

6 21 Washington St.

6 22 Dayton

6 23 Utah St.*

6 24 Kentucky

7 25 Saint Mary's (CA)*

7 26 Colorado St.

7 27 Florida

7 28 South Carolina

8 29 Michigan St.

8 30 Oklahoma

8 31 Northwestern

8 32 Fla. Atlantic

9 33 Nebraska

9 34 Mississippi St.

9 35 New Mexico

9 36 Nevada

10 37 Boise St.

10 38 Virginia

10 39 TCU

10 40 Texas

11a 41 Providence

11a 42 Utah

11 43 Grand Canyon*

11b 44 Wake Forest

11b 45 Seton Hall

11 46 Indiana St.*

12 47 McNeese*

12 48 Richmond*

12 49 South Fla.*

12 50 App State*

13 51 Samford*

13 52 Yale*

13 53 UC Irvine*

13 54 Akron*

14 55 Louisiana Tech*

14 56 Vermont*

14 57 Charleston*

14 58 Oakland*

15 59 High Point*

15 60 Morehead St.*

15 61 Colgate*

15 62 Eastern Washington*

16 63 Quinnipiac*

16 64 Southern*

16a 65 Norfolk St.*

16a 66 South Dakota St.*

16b 67 Eastern Kentucky*

16b 68 Merrimack*

Last Four In: Seton Hall, Wake Forest, Utah, Providence

First Four Out: Villanova, Ole Miss, Gonzaga, Butler

Next Four Out: Texas A&M, Colorado, Oregon, Virginia Tech

Notes:

- With Dayton's loss, Richmond moves back in as an AQ and thus an at-large spot is lost. Both Richmond and South Florida take spots from at-large teams, if FAU and Dayton though end up winning the conference tournament that would be two spots that the first two teams out would get. So Villanova and Ole Miss would be in if that happened. Bubble teams will be pulling hard for FAU and Dayton. 

- Some big bubble games this weekend.

Duke @ Wake Forest. Wake Forest has one Q1 win over Florida at home, a win over Duke at home would give them a 2nd and move them further into the field. A loss, as long as it isnt a blowout, wont kill them but if teams below them pick up big wins they could fall out.

UNC @ Virginia. Virginia probably needs to win one of their next 3 and GT at home to secure a bid. A win here would add a 4th Q1 win and put UVA in good shape.

Butler @ Seton Hall. This is a huge bubble game as Seton Hall is my last team in and Butler is my 4th team out. The winner will likely be in my field Monday the loser wont be.

Villanova @ UConn - Nova fell out of bracket today thanks to Richmond getting the A-10 AQ. But a win at UConn would likely put Nova in the field with some room to spare.

South Carolina @ Ole Miss - Ole Miss just doesnt have a ton of quality wins. This would be a Q2 win and help Ole Miss's resume. A loss would likely keep them sliding further away from the field.

Texas A&M @ Tennessee - A win here would be a 7th Q1 win for A&M which could help overcome the 4 Q3 losses. This is the opportunity for them to move the needle in a big way.

Mississippi St @ LSU - Miss St has improved their spot the last week or so, but a loss here in a tough road game, while only Q2, would increase the stress level as Miss St has a tough close Kentucky, @ Auburn, @ Texas A&M, South Carolina.

Utah @ Colorado - Another big bubble game. Colorado needs to string together wins to get in. Utah is the 2nd team in and a loss while Q1, would make them vulnerable to fall out of the field.

Wednesday, February 21, 2024

*** February 21st 2024 Bracketology***

*** February 21st 2024 Bracketology***

Seed Power Team

1 1 Purdue*

1 2 Houston*

1 3 UConn*

1 4 Arizona*

2 5 North Carolina*

2 6 Tennessee

2 7 Marquette

2 8 Kansas

3 9 Alabama*

3 10 Iowa St.

3 11 Duke

3 12 Creighton

4 13 Baylor

4 14 Illinois

4 15 San Diego St.

4 16 Auburn

5 17 Wisconsin

5 18 Dayton*

5 19 Texas Tech

5 20 Kentucky

6 21 Clemson

6 22 BYU

6 23 Colorado St.

6 24 Utah St.*

7 25 Saint Mary's (CA)*

7 26 Florida

7 27 Washington St.

7 28 South Carolina

8 29 Michigan St.

8 30 Oklahoma

8 31 Northwestern

8 32 Fla. Atlantic

9 33 Boise St.

9 34 Virginia

9 35 Nevada

9 36 TCU

10 37 Nebraska

10 38 Texas

10 39 Grand Canyon*

10 40 Mississippi St.

11 41 New Mexico

11 42 Utah

11a 43 Ole Miss

11a 44 Seton Hall

11b 45 Wake Forest

11b 46 Villanova

12 47 Indiana St.*

12 48 McNeese*

12 49 South Fla.*

12 50 App State*

13 51 Samford*

13 52 Yale*

13 53 UC Irvine*

13 54 Akron*

14 55 Louisiana Tech*

14 56 Vermont*

14 57 Charleston*

14 58 Oakland*

15 59 High Point*

15 60 Morehead St.*

15 61 Eastern Washington*

15 62 Colgate*

16 63 Quinnipiac*

16 64 Southern*

16a 65 Norfolk St.*

16a 66 South Dakota St.*

16b 67 Eastern Kentucky*

16b 68 Merrimack*

Last Four In: Villanova, Wake Forest, Seton Hall, Ole Miss

First Four Out: Gonzaga, Butler, Providence, Texas A&M

Next Four Out: Cincinnati, Colorado, Virginia Tech, Iowa

Notes

- The Big East is the most interesting bubble conference. Four teams (Seton Hall, Villanova, Butler, Providence) are squarely on the bubble and will likely oscillate in and out of the mock field the next few weeks. Today I moved Providence and Butler out while Villanova and Seton Hall moved in. There are various cases to be made for all 4. For now, I like Villanova/Seton Hall's combined Q1/Q2/Q3 records better than Butler and Providences which are below 0.500. But nova and Seton Hall have more bad losses than Butler and Providence so that is going against them. This is one of those things where it will come down to which nuances the committee value.

- I also moved Wake Forest in today. They have gained a Q1 win by not playing as Florida is now in the NET top 30 so their home win counts as Q1. Their metrics are also very good NET of 26 and predictive metrics average of 21.5. Wake has a favorable schedule to do what they need to do to secure a bid. They have 3 Q1 opportunities with two of those at home Duke and Clemson and one on the road Virginia Tech. Take care of the games against Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and then win your two home games and you are more than good, maybe 1 of those 3 and win ND/GT and avoid a bad loss at the ACC tournament could be good enough too.

- Gonzaga is an odd case. They dont have many good wins, 1-5 vs Q1, 2-1 vs Q2. But they have no bad losses and predictive metrics average of 19 and a good NET of 22. However, the performance metrics average is only 57.5. Typically in a case like this the team has an above .500 Q1/Q2 record but Gonzaga doesnt have that and their Q1/Q2/Q3 record is only 8-6 meaning that they have feasted on poor competition with an 11-0 Q4 record. They finish out with 2 Q1 opportunities @ San Francisco and @ St. Marys. Win out and they are likely in no problem, split those last two, they may still be in but may need to make the WCC final.


Monday, February 19, 2024

***Februrary 19th 2024 Bracketology***

 ***February 19th 2024 Bracketology***

Seed Power Team

1 1 UConn*

1 2 Purdue*

1 3 Houston*

1 4 Arizona*

2 5 North Carolina*

2 6 Tennessee

2 7 Marquette

2 8 Kansas

3 9 Alabama*

3 10 Baylor

3 11 Iowa St.

3 12 Duke

4 13 San Diego St.*

4 14 Illinois

4 15 Creighton

4 16 Auburn

5 17 Wisconsin

5 18 Dayton*

5 19 Texas Tech

5 20 Clemson

6 21 Kentucky

6 22 Colorado St.

6 23 Florida

6 24 Michigan St.

7 25 Saint Mary's (CA)*

7 26 Oklahoma

7 27 BYU

7 28 South Carolina

8 29 Utah St.

8 30 Washington St.

8 31 Northwestern

8 32 Virginia

9 33 Boise St.

9 34 Fla. Atlantic

9 35 TCU

9 36 Nebraska

10 37 Texas

10 38 Nevada

10 39 Grand Canyon*

10 40 New Mexico

11 41 Butler

11 42 Mississippi St.

11a 43 Utah

11a 44 Ole Miss

11b 45 Texas A&M

11b 46 Providence

12 47 Indiana St.*

12 48 McNeese*

12 49 South Fla.*

12 50 App State*

13 51 Samford*

13 52 Yale*

13 53 Akron*

13 54 UC Irvine*

14 55 Louisiana Tech*

14 56 Vermont*

14 57 Charleston*

14 58 Morehead St.*

15 59 Oakland*

15 60 High Point*

15 61 Eastern Washington*

15 62 Colgate*

16 63 Quinnipiac*

16 64 Southern*

16a 65 Norfolk St.*

16a 66 South Dakota St.*

16b 67 Eastern Kentucky*

16b 68 Merrimack*

Last Four In: Providence, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Utah

First Four Out: Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Wake Forest, Gonzaga

Next Four Out: Colorado, Villanova, Oregon, Pittsburgh

Notes:

The teams in my bracket stayed the same as the Friday update. It is getting hard to sift the bottom of the bracket. Ole Miss is my third team in and they have good resume metrics (KPI=26, SOR=21), but the NET is mediocre at 65, the performance metrics are quite bad (average of 71.5). They have 3 Q1 wins and 2Q2 wins which isnt great but not terrible, and no bad losses. So it will be difficult to get in if they dont get hot. Texas A&M is 6-5 in Q1 which is great and 2-1 in Q2 but they have 4 Q3 losses! Arkansas comes to town this week in the last chance for a bad loss on the resume pre SEC tournament, a loss there could be too much to overcome. Providence has no bad losses 4 Q1 wins, 3 Q2 wins, and ok metrics. The NET isnt great at 59. Seton Hall has 5 Q1 wins, 2 Q2 wins but 2 Q3 losses. Their resume metrics are better than Providence, but the NET is worse at 63 with the aforementioned 2 bad losses. They are another interesting case. Cincy has a classic mediocre power conference resume but could go either way. Wake Forest lost again this weekend but by virtue of Florida moving into the top 30 they now have a Q1 win and 4 Q2 wins with no bad losses and pretty good metrics. They probably still need to add a couple of Q1 wins. Gonzaga is going to have to likely win out and avoid a bad loss at the WCC tournament to get in. Although winning out but losing to St. Marys at the end of the reg season and again in the WCC tourny could also be enough.

From hear out, I may post more than two brackets a week depending on my time.

Friday, February 16, 2024

*** Bracketology February 16th 2024***

 *** Bracketology February 16th 2024***Seed Power Team

1 1 Purdue*

1 2 UConn*

1 3 Houston*

1 4 Arizona*

2 5 Tennessee

2 6 Marquette

2 7 North Carolina*

2 8 Kansas

3 9 Baylor

3 10 Iowa St.

3 11 Wisconsin

3 12 Duke

4 13 Alabama*

4 14 Auburn

4 15 Illinois

4 16 Creighton

5 17 Clemson

5 18 San Diego St.

5 19 Dayton*

5 20 Texas Tech

6 21 Oklahoma

6 22 BYU

6 23 South Carolina

6 24 Utah St.*

7 25 Fla. Atlantic

7 26 Michigan St.

7 27 Saint Mary's (CA)*

7 28 Colorado St.

8 29 Kentucky

8 30 Washington St.

8 31 Texas

8 32 Boise St.

9 33 Virginia

9 34 Florida

9 35 Northwestern

9 36 Butler

10 37 Nebraska

10 38 New Mexico

10 39 TCU

10 40 Mississippi St.

11 41 Texas A&M

11 42 Grand Canyon*

11a 43 Nevada

11a 44 Utah

11 45 Indiana St.*

12a 46 Providence

12a 47 Ole Miss

12 48 McNeese*

12 49 South Fla.*

12 50 Samford*

13 51 App State*

13 52 Yale*

13 53 UNCW*

13 54 Akron*

14 55 UC Irvine*

14 56 Louisiana Tech*

14 57 Vermont*

14 58 Eastern Washington*

15 59 Morehead St.*

15 60 Oakland*

15 61 High Point*

15 62 Colgate*

16 63 Quinnipiac*

16 64 Southern*

16a 65 Norfolk St.*

16a 66 South Dakota St.*

16b 67 Eastern Kentucky*

16b 68 Merrimack*

Last Four In: Ole Miss, Providence, Utah, Nevada

First Four Out: Gonzaga, Wake Forest, Seton Hall, Cincinnati

Next Four Out: St. Johns, Colorado, Villanova, Kansas St.

Monday, February 12, 2024

*** Bracketology February 12th 2024***

 *** Bracketology February 12th 2024**

Seed Power Team

1 1 Purdue*

1 2 UConn*

1 3 Houston*

1 4 Arizona*

2 5 North Carolina*

2 6 Kansas

2 7 Tennessee

2 8 Marquette

3 9 Baylor

3 10 Iowa St.

3 11 Wisconsin

3 12 Duke

4 13 South Carolina

4 14 Alabama*

4 15 Illinois

4 16 Auburn

5 17 Creighton

5 18 Clemson

5 19 Dayton

5 20 Oklahoma

6 21 San Diego St.

6 22 Utah St.*

6 23 Fla. Atlantic

6 24 Colorado St.

7 25 BYU

7 26 Texas Tech

7 27 Texas

7 28 Kentucky

8 29 Boise St.

8 30 Northwestern

8 31 Saint Mary's (CA)*

8 32 Virginia

9 33 Texas A&M

9 34 Washington St.

9 35 Butler

9 36 Nebraska

10 37 Utah

10 38 Florida

10 39 TCU

10 40 Michigan St.

11a 41 Ole Miss

11a 42 Mississippi St.

11 43 Indiana St.*

11 44 Grand Canyon*

12a 45 Nevada

12a 46 New Mexico

12 47 Richmond*

12 48 McNeese*

12 49 South Fla.*

12 50 App State*

13 51 Samford*

13 52 Yale*

13 53 UNCW*

13 54 Akron*

14 55 UC Irvine*

14 56 Louisiana Tech*

14 57 Vermont*

14 58 Eastern Washington*

15 59 High Point*

15 60 Morehead St.*

15 61 Colgate*

15 62 Quinnipiac*

16 63 Southern*

16 64 Green Bay*

16a 65 Norfolk St.*

16a 66 South Dakota State*

16b 67 Eastern Kentucky*

16b 68 Merrimack*

Last Four Int: New Mexico, Nevada, Mississippi St., Ole Miss

First Four Out: Providence, Cincinnati, St. Johns, Wake Forest

Next Four Out: Gonzaga, Colorado, Memphis, Seton Hall

Notes:

- One big note is that two of the automatic qualifiers currently in my bracket Richmond and South Florida would not be at-large teams if they didnt win their conference. The betting money would still be on Dayton or FAU to win those brackets, but those conferences will be bid-stealing ones potentially. So Providence and Cincy are my first two out, if those two teams were not to win their conference tournaments those two would be in my bracket.

- The time of year for lots of shuffling still, especially in the middle of the bracket. New Mexico may be the biggest loser of the weekend falling all the way down to my last team in. New Mexico has a great NET of 22 but only 2 Q1 and 2 Q2 wins a 4-4 record in those two quads, and picked up a bad loss to UNLV at home this weekend. Their resume metrics are ok with an average of 44 with pretty good predictive metrics of an average of 32. But they also have no big road wins with 0 Q1/Q2 road wins. The good news is that their schedule still has plenty of opportunities for that with their next two games @ Nevada and @ SDSU and still trips to Boise and Utah State as well. They probably need to win at least 1 if not split those and avoid the two bad loss opportunities to Air Force and Fresno at home and in the MWC tournament. Meanwhile Nevada moved in with a win at home over SDSU. They also have 2 Q1 road wins and 5 Q1 wins in general, a good number.

Thursday, February 8, 2024

*** February 8th 2024 Bracketology***

You can find my history on http://bracketmatrix.com/ 

My entry is labled RWX. Last year I finished tied for 4th for the most accurate bracket!

***February 8th 2024 Bracketology***

Seed Power Team

1 1 Purdue*

1 2 UConn*

1 3 Houston*

1 4 Arizona*

2 5 Tennessee

2 6 North Carolina*

2 7 Kansas

2 8 Marquette

3 9 Baylor

3 10 Wisconsin

3 11 Iowa St.

3 12 Duke

4 13 Dayton*

4 14 Illinois

4 15 Auburn

4 16 South Carolina

5 17 Alabama*

5 18 San Diego St.

5 19 Creighton

5 20 Clemson

6 21 Fla. Atlantic*

6 22 Oklahoma

6 23 Kentucky

6 24 Utah St.

7 25 Colorado St.

7 26 BYU

7 27 Utah

7 28 Boise St.

8 29 Texas Tech

8 30 Texas

8 31 Northwestern

8 32 New Mexico*

9 33 Saint Mary's (CA)*

9 34 Virginia

9 35 Nebraska

9 36 TCU

10 37 Butler

10 38 Mississippi St.

10 39 Ole Miss

10 40 Washington St.

11 41 Texas A&M

11 42 Indiana St.*

11 43 Grand Canyon*

11 44 Florida

12a 45 Providence

12a 46 Michigan St.

12b 47 Cincinnati

12b 48 Seton Hall

12 49 McNeese*

12 50 Cornell*

13 51 App State*

13 52 Samford*

13 53 UC Irvine*

13 54 Akron*

14 55 Louisiana Tech*

14 56 Vermont*

14 57 High Point*

14 58 Eastern Washington*

15 59 Morehead St.*

15 60 Drexel*

15 61 Colgate*

15 62 Quinnipiac*

16 63 Oakland*

16 64 Southern*

16a 65 Norfolk St.*

16a 66 South Dakota St.*

16b 67 Eastern Kentucky*

16b 68 Merrimack*

Last Four In: Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Michigan St., Providence

First Four Out: St. Johns, Nevada, Kansas St., Wake Forest

Next Four Out: Colorado, Memphis, Xavier, Virginia Tech



Tuesday, February 6, 2024

*** February 6th 2024 Bracketology ***

*** February 6th 2024 Bracketology ***

Seed Power Team

1 1 Purdue*

1 2 UConn*

1 3 Houston*

1 4 North Carolina*

2 5 Arizona*

2 6 Tennessee

2 7 Kansas

2 8 Marquette

3 9 Wisconsin

3 10 Baylor

3 11 Alabama*

3 12 Duke

4 13 Iowa St.

4 14 Illinois

4 15 Dayton*

4 16 South Carolina

5 17 Creighton

5 18 BYU

5 19 Auburn

5 20 Kentucky

6 21 San Diego St.

6 22 Fla. Atlantic*

6 23 Utah St.*

6 24 Texas Tech

7 25 Utah

7 26 Colorado St.

7 27 Clemson

7 28 Texas

8 29 Oklahoma

8 30 Boise St.

8 31 Nebraska

8 32 Northwestern

9 33 TCU

9 34 Butler

9 35 Mississippi St.

9 36 Saint Mary's (CA)*

10 37 New Mexico

10 38 Ole Miss

10 39 Washington St.

10 40 Michigan St.

11 41 Virginia

11 42 Texas A&M

11 43 Indiana St.*

11 44 Grand Canyon*

12a 45 Florida

12a 46 St. John's (NY)

12b 47 Seton Hall

12b 48 Providence

12 49 App State*

12 50 McNeese*

13 51 Cornell*

13 52 Samford*

13 53 UC Irvine*

13 54 Akron*

14 55 Louisiana Tech*

14 56 Vermont*

14 57 High Point*

14 58 Eastern Washington*

15 59 Morehead St.*

15 60 Drexel*

15 61 Colgate*

15 62 Quinnipiac*

16 63 Oakland*

16 64 Southern*

16a 65 Norfolk St*.

16a 66 South Dakota St.*

16b 67 Merrimack*

16b 68 Eastern Kentucky* 

Last Four In: Providence, Seton Hall, St. Johns, Florida

First Four Out: Cincinnati, Kansas St., Virginia Tech, Colorado

Next Four Out: Oregon, Nevada, Memphis, Villanova

Notes

- Despite only a few games of importance last night, I did do a bit of reshuffling today after just some further evaluation.

- Providence and Seton Hall are curious cases, they have some big wins, but their results based metrics (KPI/SOR) are not the greatest. These metrics seem to have much more importance in the committees eyes than the predictive metrics (KenPom/BPI). Seton Halls and Providences numbers are worse then say Florida or Virginia or Ole Miss who may not have as many big wins as those teams. Providence and Seton Hall cant afford bad losses and probably need a few more big wins to make the field.