March 4th 2026 Bracketology **Updated 2:30m ET**

 Seed Power Team

1 1 * Duke

1 2 * Arizona

1 3 * Michigan

1 4 * UConn

2 5 * Florida

2 6 Houston

2 7 Michigan St

2 8 Illinois

3 9 Purdue

3 10 Iowa State

3 11 Nebraska

3 12 * Gonzaga

4 13 Texas Tech

4 14 Virginia

4 15 Alabama

4 16 Kansas

5 17 North Carolina

5 18 Vanderbilt

5 19 Arkansas

5 20 Tennessee

6 21 St. John's

6 22 Louisville

6 23 Wisconsin

6 24 St. Mary's

7 25 Villanova

7 26 Kentucky

7 27 BYU

7 28 Clemson

8 29 Georgia

8 30 * Saint Louis

8 31 Miami

8 32 UCLA

9 33 * Utah St

9 34 Iowa

9 35 NC State

9 36 Texas

10 37 UCF

10 38 Missouri

10 39 Texas A&M

10 40 * Miami-OH

11 41 TCU

11 42 Ohio State

11a 43 SMU

11b 44 New Mexico

11c 45 Santa Clara

11d 46 Auburn

12 47 * South Florida

12 48 * Belmont

12 49 * Yale

12 50 * Stephen F. Austin

13 51 * High Point

13 52 * Liberty

13 53 * UNCW

13 54 * Cal Baptist

14 55 * Hawai'i

14 56 * North Dakota St

14 57 * Navy

14 58 * Troy

15 59 *Austin Peay

15 60 * Portland St

15 61 * East Tenn St

15 62 * Wright St

16 63 * Merrimack

16 64 * UMBC

16a 65 * Howard

16a 66 * Tennessee St

16a 67 * Long Island

16a 68 * Bethune Cookman

Last Four In: Auburn, Santa Clara, New Mexico, SMU

Fist Four Out: VCU, Va Tech, Indiana, Cincy

Next Four Out: California, San Diego St., USC, Seton Hall

Comments

- Auburn won to get back to 2 games above 0.500 at 16-14. If the season ended today with the nations 3rd toughest schedule and their collection of good wins they were my last team in today knocking VCU out. But, they finish the regular season @ Alabama. A loss there would knock them out of my bracket and they would have to win at least 2 games at the SEC tournament to get back to 2 games above 0.500 and hope for no conference tournament chaos. A win to close the season would be huge for them.

- Cincinnati is a curious case. They are one of the hottest teams in the country and they now have wins vs Iowa State, @ Kansas, vs BYU, and vs UCF with only 1 bad loss, but it was a Q4 at home vs Eastern Michigan back in November. Their performance metrics are very good with a Torvik of 26 and a KenPom of 42, but the resume metrics are lacking with a SOR of 66 and a WAB of 58. Usually the committee will look closer at resume metrics to put you in the field and performance more towards seeding. They finish with a Q1 game @ TCU. A win there could make it very hard for the committee to keep them out barring a bad loss at the Big 12 tournament.

Tonights Bubble Games:

Minnesota @ Indiana - Minnesota can be feisty and has won 3 of 4 and lost closely at Michigan. Indiana cant afford to lose this one. They need to win this one and likely win @ Ohio State to close the season to have a realistic shot at an at large bid.

Texas @ Arkansas - Texas is probably good without a win here, but a loss here and another one to close the season at home to Oklahoma could have them in the last 4 in heading into the SEC tournament which is a precarious position to be in Championship week.

Miami @ SMU - SMU has slowly been sliding down the S curve and is my 4th team in today meaning they would be in Dayton. They have the typical power conference bubble profile 4-8 vs Q1, 3-2 vs Q2, no bad losses, but middling metrics (SOR and WAB at 44, and Torvik at 42 and KenPom at 41).  A win here would put them in good shape, but a loss and then a loss to end the season on the road at FSU would have them in a precarious spot heading into the ACC tournament.

California @ Georgia Tech - Cal's at-large hopes are on life support after their home loss to Pitt over the weekend a road loss to the ACCs worst team would kill it off for good most likely.

Ohio St. @ Penn St. - Ohio State is in decent shape and a win here would all but lock up a bid. But a loss here and to end the season vs Indiana would make things very dicey.

Colorado St. @ New Mexico - Being the 2nd to last team in means you cant lose a Q3 game at home here. In fact they really need to win this one and upset Utah State on the road to end the season to be in ok shape heading into the conference tournament.

USC @ Washington - USC's resume metrics arent terrible with a 47 SOR and 48 WAB, but their performance metrics are not good BT=61, KP=67 and they are on a 5 game losing streak and their best player has left the team. They have to win this game and beat UCLA at home to close the season to have any chance and then they would likely have to pick up a quality win or two in the B1G tournament.