Seed Power Team
1 1 * Duke
1 2 * Michigan
1 3 * Arizona
1 4 * Florida
2 5 UConn
2 6 Houston
2 7 Michigan St
2 8 Illinois
3 9 Iowa State
3 10 Nebraska
3 11 * Gonzaga
3 12 Purdue
4 13 Alabama
4 14 Virginia
4 15 Vanderbilt
4 16 Kansas
5 17 Texas Tech
5 18 Arkansas
5 19 North Carolina
5 20 * St. John's
6 21 Louisville
6 22 Wisconsin
6 23 Tennessee
6 24 BYU
7 28 St. Mary's
7 34 Kentucky
7 25 UCLA
7 26 Villanova
8 27 Iowa
8 29 Miami
8 30 Clemson
8 31 Texas A&M
9 32 Georgia
9 33 * Utah St
9 35 Ohio State
9 36 * Saint Louis
10 37 TCU
10 38 * Miami-OH
10 39 NC State
10 40 Texas
11 41 Missouri
11 42 UCF
11a 43 Santa Clara
11b 44 VCU
11c 45 Indiana
11d 46 SMU
12 47 * South Florida
12 48 * Northern Iowa
12 49 * Stephen F. Austin
12 50 * Yale
13 51 * High Point
13 52 * Utah Valley
13 53 * Liberty
13 54 * Hofstra
14 55 * North Dakota St
14 56 * UC Irvine
14 57 * Troy
14 58 * Wright St
15 59 * Portland St
15 60 * East Tenn St
15 61 * Merrimack
15 62 * Queens
16 63 * Tennessee St
16 64 * UMBC
16a 65 * Howard
16a 66 * Long Island
16a 67 * Bethune Cookman
16a 68 *Boston U
Last Four In: SMU, Indiana, VCU, Santa Clara.
First Four Out: Virginia Tech, California, Stanford, San Diego St.
Next Four Out: New Mexico, Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Auburn.
It was a weekend where most bubble teams lost and blew chances to win their way into the field. The exception was VCU, who despite a mediocre resume, picked up a Q1 road win at Dayton and slid into my field.
The only real bubble game today is:
Santa Clara vs St. Marys - Santa Clara is my 4th team in the field today. They may have done enough to get into the field by avoiding a bad loss to Pacific last night. A loss here to St. Marys would be Q1 so wouldnt hurt their resume or knock them out of my field, unless it was a horrific blowout perhaps, but it would leave them vulnerable to chaos below them. A win would likely lock a bid in for Santa Clara.
Typically, you would want to be 5/6 slots into the field at least at this point to feel pretty safe. I do think that UCF and above in my S curve, is likely safe unless we see multiple teams in the first 8 out get hot and make a magical run.
As far as leagues where bid thieves are possible:
Atlantic 10 - St. Louis should be in despite a slide late. VCU is on the edge so they could lose their at-large bid with an early A-10 exit. The worst case scenario is VCU making the final and losing to say a Dayton or GMU. Then the A-10 could get 3 bids and take one from the current bubble teams.
Big East - You could put the Big East here. UConn, St. Johns, and Villanova are locks. Could a Seton Hall or a Creighton or someone get hot and win the league? Maybe.
MAC - This is the big one. Miami OH should be in even with an early exit. The committee will not overlook at perfect regular season even with the lack of Q1/Q2 wins and mediocre performance metrics. Bubble world is pulling for Miami to win it, but Akron may be the best team.
Mountain West - This is another league where a bid stealer is very possible. Utah State is a lock, SDSU and New Mexico are bubble teams and currently not in my bracket. They could easily win the automatic bid, and Grand Canyon, Boise St, Nevada even UNLV are all capable.
WCC - Only one bid thief remains in the WCC. Oregon State plays Gonzaga tonight. Bubble nation pulls hard for the Zags tonight.
A huge week of conference tournaments awaits, my personal favorite sports week of the year. I will update every day going forward.
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