March 15th 2026 Bracketology **Final Bracket** **Posted 530pm ET**

 Seed Power Team

1 1 * Duke

1 2 Michigan

1 3 * Arizona

1 4 Florida

2 5 Houston

2 6 UConn

2 7 Iowa State

2 8 * Purdue

3 9 Michigan St

3 10 Illinois

3 12 Vanderbilt

3 11 * Gonzaga

4 13 Virginia

4 14 Nebraska

4 15 * St. John's

4 16 * Arkansas

5 17 Alabama

5 18 Kansas

5 19 Texas Tech

5 20 Wisconsin

6 21 Tennessee

6 22 North Carolina

6 23 Louisville

6 24 BYU

7 25 Kentucky

7 26 UCLA

7 27 Miami

7 28 * Utah St

8 29 Clemson

8 30 St. Mary's

8 31 Villanova

8 32 Georgia

9 33 Ohio State

9 34 TCU

9 35 Iowa

9 36 UCF

10 37 Texas A&M

10 38 Saint Louis

10 39 NC State

10 40 Santa Clara

11 41 * VCU

11a 42 Missouri

11b 43 Miami-OH

11c 44 SMU

11d 45 Texas

11 46 * South Florida

12 47 * McNeese St

12 48 * Akron

12 49 * Northern Iowa

12 50 * High Point

13 51 * Cal Baptist

13 52 * Hofstra

13 53 * Hawai'i

13 54 * North Dakota St

14 55 * Troy

14 56 * Wright St

14 57 * Pennsylvania

14 58 * Kennesaw St

15 59 * Idaho

15 60 * Siena

15 61 * Furman

15 62 * Tennessee St

16 63 * UMBC

16 64 * Queens

16a 65 * Howard

16a 66 * Long Island

16a 67 * Lehigh

16a 68 * Prairie View A&M

Last Four In: Texas, SMU, Miami OH, Missouri

First Four Out: Oklahoma, San Diego St, Auburn, Virginia Tech

Next Four Out: New Mexico, Oklahoma St., Indiana, Stanford

March 15th 2026 Bracketology **Updated 6:15am ET**

Seed Power Team

1 1 * Duke

1 2 * Michigan

1 3 * Arizona

1 4 * Florida

2 5 Houston

2 6 UConn

2 7 Iowa State

2 8 Michigan St

3 9 Purdue

3 10 Illinois

3 12 Vanderbilt

3 11 * Gonzaga

4 13 Virginia

4 14 Nebraska

4 15 Alabama

4 16 * St. John's

5 17 Kansas

5 18 Arkansas

5 19 Texas Tech

5 20 Wisconsin

6 21 Tennessee

6 22 North Carolina

6 23 Louisville

6 24 BYU

7 25 Kentucky

7 26 UCLA

7 27 Miami

7 28 Clemson

8 29 St. Mary's

8 30 * Utah St

8 31 Ohio State

8 32 Villanova

9 33 Georgia

9 34 TCU

9 35 Iowa

9 36 UCF

10 37 * Saint Louis

10 38 Texas A&M

10 39 NC State

10 40 Santa Clara

11a 41 Missouri

11b 42 Miami-OH

11 43 * VCU

11c 44 SMU

11d 45 Texas

11 46 * South Florida

12 47 * McNeese St

12 48 * Akron

12 49 * Northern Iowa

12 50 * Yale

13 51 * High Point

13 52 * Cal Baptist

13 53 * Hofstra

13 54 * Hawaii

14 55 * North Dakota St

14 56 * Troy

14 57 * Wright St

14 58 * Kennesaw St

15 59 * Idaho

15 60 * Siena

15 61 * Furman

15 62 * Tennessee St

16 63 * UMBC

16 64 * Queens

16a 65 * Howard

16a 66 * Long Island

16a 67 * Lehigh

16a 68 * Prairie View 

Last Four In: Texas, SMU, Miami -OH, Missouri

First Four Out: Oklahoma, San Diego St, Auburn, Va Tech

Next Four Out: New Mexico, Oklahoma St, Indiana, Stanford

I am on the road today, so this is my bracket without taking a deep dive into the new metrics which havent updated yet as of this moment.

This afternoon, I will update one more time with my final bracket after todays games and looking more closely at the metrics.

For the bubble, the key game today is VCU/Dayton. I THINK, I will keep VCU in my field even with a loss. So if Dayton wins, Texas is out.

March 14th Bracketology **Updated 11:30 AM ET**

 Seed Power Team

1 1 * Duke

1 2 * Michigan

1 3 * Arizona

1 4 * Florida

2 5 Houston

2 6 UConn

2 7 Iowa State

2 8 Michigan St

3 9 Purdue

3 10 Illinois

3 11 * Gonzaga

3 12 Virginia

4 13 Nebraska

4 14 Vanderbilt

4 15 Alabama

4 16 Kansas

5 17 Arkansas

5 18 * St. John's

5 19 Texas Tech

5 20 Wisconsin

6 21 Tennessee

6 22 North Carolina

6 23 Louisville

6 24 BYU

7 25 Kentucky

7 26 UCLA

7 27 Miami

7 28 Clemson

8 29 St. Mary's

8 30 Ohio State

8 31 * Utah St

8 32 Villanova

9 33 Georgia

9 34 TCU

9 35 Iowa

9 36 UCF

10 37 * Saint Louis

10 38 Texas A&M

10 39 NC State

10 40 Santa Clara

11 41 Missouri

11a 42 Miami-OH

11b 43 VCU

11c 44 SMU

11d 45 Texas

11 46 * South Florida

12 47 * McNeese St

12 48 * Akron

12 49 * Northern Iowa

12 50 * Yale

13 51 * High Point

13 52 * Utah Valley

13 53 * Hofstra

13 54 * UC Irvine

14 55 * North Dakota St

14 56 * Troy

14 57 * Wright St

14 58 * Kennesaw St

15 59 * Idaho

15 60 * Siena

15 61 * Furman

15 62 * Tennessee St

16 63 * UMBC

16 64 * Queens

16a 65 * Howard

16a 66 * Long Island

16a 67 * Southern U

16a 68 * Lehigh

Last Four In: Texas, SMU, VCU, Miami OH

First Four Out: Oklahoma, San Diego St, Auburn, Virginia Tech

Next Four Out: New Mexico, Oklahoma St, Indiana, Stanford

So the bubble is pretty settled, although some things could still happen. VCU has a Q3 game today vs St. Josephs in the A-10 semis. A loss here will likely knock VCU out of my bracket and move Oklahoma in. But if St. Josephs were to then win the A-10 tomorrow, it would knock the Sooners back out. Also if VCU wins, but loses tomorrow to Dayton. I think the A-10 may get 3 in and that could knock Texas out.

There are still two bid theives out there outside the A-10 with Ole Miss still alive in the SEC, and SDSU playing Utah State tonight in the MWC final. So if you are in the last 4 in, you still have a little be nervous about, although I think Miami OH is a lock, so then that would mean Missouri still isnt 100% safe, atlhough they should be in the end.

March 13th 2026 Bracketology **Updated 11:30am ET**

 Seed Power Team

1 1 * Duke

1 2 * Michigan

1 3 * Arizona

1 4 * Florida

2 5 Houston

2 6 UConn

2 7 Michigan St

2 8 Iowa State

3 9 Illinois

3 10 * Gonzaga

3 11 Nebraska

3 12 Purdue

4 13 Alabama

4 14 Virginia

4 15 Vanderbilt

4 16 Kansas

5 17 Arkansas

5 18 * St. John's

5 19 Tennessee

5 20 Texas Tech

6 21 North Carolina

6 22 Louisville

6 23 Wisconsin

6 24 BYU

7 25 Kentucky

7 26 Miami

7 27 Clemson

7 28 St. Mary's

8 29 Ohio State

8 30 UCLA

8 31 * Utah St

8 32 Villanova

9 33 Georgia

9 34 TCU

9 35 Iowa

9 36 * Saint Louis

10 37 UCF

10 38 Texas A&M

10 39 NC State

10 40 Santa Clara

11 41 Missouri

11a 42 Miami-OH

11b 43 VCU

11c 44 SMU

11d 45 Texas

11 46 * South Florida

12 47 * McNeese St

12 48 * Akron

12 49 * Northern Iowa

12 50 * Yale

13 51 * High Point

13 52 * Utah Valley

13 53 * Hofstra

13 54 * Sam Houston

14 55 * UC Irvine

14 56 * North Dakota St

14 57 * Troy

14 58 * Wright St

15 59 * Idaho

15 60 * Siena

15 61 * Furman

15 62 * Tennessee St

16 63 * UMBC

16 64 * Queens

16a 65 * Howard

16a 66 * Long Island

16a 67 * Southern U

16a 68 * Lehigh

Last Four In: Texas, SMU, VCU, Miami-OH

First Four Out: Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Auburn, SDSU

Next Four Out: New Mexico, Oklahoma St., Indiana. Seton Hall

So the field is coming into more focus. Miami OH, in my opinion, is guaranteed a spot in the field. The committee will not overlook their perfect regular season. But the poor performance metrics, BT=87, KenPom=93, will likely result in them being in last 4 in and playing in Dayton. But they will not slide out of the field if we get say 4 bid stealers.

There are still 4 possible bid stealing scenarios, in the Big East, Georgetown and Seton Hall are still alive in the semifinals. In the MWC, if Utah State does not win the tournament, a bid will be stolen, in the A-10 if VCU loses in the finals or St. Louis doesnt win, a big will be stolen, and in the SEC Ole Miss and Oklahoma are still alive.

Oklahoma is now my first team out. You could make a case they should be in over Texas. However, the committee seems hesitant to move teams out of the bracket short of a bad loss and a teams that is say 4/5 spots out into the bracket without alot happening. If Oklahoma beats Arkansas today, they will move into my bracket and Texas will fall out. I do not think Seton Hall gets in short of winning the Big East tournament and I dont think either of the MWC teams on the bubble SDSU or New Mexico get in with just a win tonight, at least not into my bracket. Now there is a scenario where Oklahoma gets an at-large bid with say a win today but Ole Miss makes a run and wins the SEC tournament. That would be two bids stolen because of SEC Tournament results. And then say Utah State loses, St. Louis loses, VCU loses in the final, and Seton Hall or Georgetown wins. That means 5 teams in my field today, COULD still fall out. If I say Miami OH is a lock, that means Texas, SMU, VCU, Missouri, and Santa Clara could still conceivably fall out.

Hopefully another great day of games today!

So IMO, Texas, SMU, VCU, 

March 12th 2026 Bracketology **Updated 12pm ET**

 Seed Power Team

1 1 * Duke

1 2 * Michigan

1 3 * Arizona

1 4 * Florida

2 5 Houston

2 6 UConn

2 7 Michigan St.

2 8 Illinois

3 9 Iowa St.

3 10 * Gonzaga

3 11 Nebraska

3 12 Purdue

4 13 Alabama

4 14 Virginia

4 15 Vanderbilt

4 16 Kansas

5 17 Texas Tech

5 18 Arkansas

5 19 North Carolina

5 20 * St. John's (NY)

6 21 Louisville

6 22 Wisconsin

6 23 Tennessee

6 24 BYU

7 25 Kentucky

7 26 UCLA

7 27 Saint Mary's (CA)

7 28 Villanova

8 29 Iowa

8 30 Clemson

8 31 Miami (FL)

8 32 Texas A&M

9 33 Georgia

9 34 * Utah St.

9 35 TCU

9 36 Ohio St.

10 37 * Saint Louis

10 38 * Miami (OH)

10 39 UCF

10 40 NC State

11 41 Santa Clara

11 42 Missouri

11a 43 VCU

11b 44 SMU

11c 45 Texas

11d 46 Auburn

12 47 * South Fla.

12 48 * McNeese

12 49 * UNI

12 50 * Yale

13 51 * High Point

13 52 * Utah Valley

13 53 * Hofstra

13 54 * UC Irvine

14 55 * NDSU

14 56 * Troy

14 57 * Wright State

14 58 * MTSU

15 59 * Idaho

15 60 * Siena

15 61 * Furman

15 62 * Queens

16 63 * Tennessee St.

16 64 * UMBC

16a 65 * Howard

16a 66 * Long Island

16a 67 * Lehigh

16a 68 * Southern U

Last Four In: Auburn, Texas, SMU, VCU

First Four Out: Indiana, Oklahoma, Va Tech, SDSU

Next Four Out: New Mexico, Oklahoma St, California, Seton Hall

Live Notes Today:

- With the Miami OH loss, Auburn had already fallen out of my bracket to be the first team out.  But they will not be in my bracket after a loss today to Tennessee to fall to 17-16 overall. So while I will reanalyze all the teams tomorrow and there could be some shuffling, my final 4 in at the moment are: Texas (last in), SMU, VCU, Missouri. Miami OH will probably be in Dayton as well, but they have an odd caveat. I think Miami OH will be in regardless of bid stealers because the committee will honor their 31-0 regular season.

There are still 6 theoretical bid stealing scenarios (ACC, A-10, Big East, Big 10, Mountain West, SEC). The A-10 and MWC are the most likely. Also VCU could pick up a Q3 loss if they end up losing before the A-10 final and if that happens they will likely fall out of my bracket. So then excluding Miami OH, the 6 teams in order that are still not a "lock" are Texas, SMU, VCU, Missouri, Santa Clara, and NC State. Only VCU is still active. But after I review the updated data tomorrow morning that order could change.

- Miami OH goes down in the MAC tournament. Even though the performance metrics are not in Miami's favor, I think the committee will not leave them out at 31-1 and undefeated regular season. However, they may slide into Dayton. More imporant for bubble nation, a spot is gone. So Auburn in real time, has now fallen out of my bracket, and Texas is my final team in.

Notes:

Late post today. So I will keep the comments to a minimum to get this out before the main games kick off.

Auburn is the last team in today, a win today vs Tennessee will put them in decent shape, a loss and they are out. But of course the last team or two in has to worry about bid stealers. Miami Oh has to win the MAC or this spot goes away. They are in action today in a tight game in the 1st half vs UMass.

I reserve the right to reshuffle things as I analyze it more the coming days. Another fun day of action ahead! I will make some posts today with comments on the action throughout the day.

March 11th 2026 Bracketology **Updated 12pm ET**

 Seed Power Team

1 1 * Duke

1 2 * Michigan

1 3 * Arizona

1 4 * Florida

2 5 Houston

2 6 UConn

2 7 Michigan St

2 8 Illinois

3 9 Iowa State

3 10 * Gonzaga

3 11 Nebraska

3 12 Purdue

4 13 Alabama

4 14 Virginia

4 15 Vanderbilt

4 16 Kansas

5 17 Texas Tech

5 18 Arkansas

5 19 North Carolina

5 20 * St. John's

6 21 Louisville

6 22 Wisconsin

6 23 Tennessee

6 24 BYU

7 25 Kentucky

7 26 UCLA

7 27 St. Mary's

7 28 Villanova

8 29 Iowa

8 30 Miami

8 31 Clemson

8 32 Texas A&M

9 33 Georgia

9 34 * Utah St

9 35 Ohio State

9 36 * Saint Louis

10 37 TCU

10 38 * Miami-OH

10 39 NC State

10 40 Texas

11 41 Santa Clara

11 42 Missouri

11a 43 UCF

11b 44 VCU

11c 45 SMU

11d 46 Indiana

12 47 * South Florida

12 48 * Northern Iowa

12 49 * Stephen F. Austin

12 50 * Yale

13 51 * High Point

13 52 * Utah Valley

13 53 * Liberty

13 54 * Hofstra

14 55 * UC Irvine

14 56 * North Dakota St

14 57 * Troy

14 58 * Wright St

15 59 * Siena

15 60 * Furman

15 61 * Idaho

15 62 * Queens

16 63 * Tennessee St

16 64 * UMBC

16a 65 * Howard

16a 66 * Long Island

16a 67 * Bethune Cookman

16a 68 * Boston U

Last Four In: Indiana, SMU, VCU, UCF

First Four Out: California, Va Tech, SDSU, New Mexico

Next Four Out: Oklahoma St., Oklahoma, Cincy, Auburn

Notes from last night:

Two big bubble losses yesterday in the ACC as Stanford picked up a 4th Q3 loss and likely lost any chance to make the field. Va Tech lost close Q2 game to Wake Forest. This will likely preclude Va Tech from being in my final bracket, but they are my 2nd team out, and when you are that close, you still have some hope that maybe the committee is just looking at you differently than the bracketologists. It seems there is at least one team like that every season. 

Santa Clara played a very competitive game with Gonzaga last night but came up short. They are 6 teams deep in my field and are likely a lock for an at-large.

Today and tomorrow are usually the two biggest bubble days of the year.

Todays Games:

Pittsburgh vs NC State - Well this is a worst case scenario for NC State. If this was Stanford, a loss here would not be a bad loss, and the Pack would probably be ok even with a loss as they are 8 teams deep into my field. But this is now a Q3 game, however the caveat is that Pittsburgh now has a NET of 102, and a win here could push that into the top 100 making this a Q2 game. State still may be ok even with a loss. But coming in to today, their WAB is 43, which is getting precariously high. A loss here may not push them out of my bracket, but it COULD push them down a few spots in the S Curve leaving them vulnerable with no way to help themselves anymore. Win today, and the Pack has no worries most likely.

Arizona State vs Iowa State - ASU is not even in my next 4 out. But a win here would give them a 6th Q1 win, with 5 Q2 wins. That is a healthy resume of quality wins. They do have a Q3 and Q4 loss though, and the WAB of 56 and SOR of 59, is too high for serious at large consideration yet. A win here though would start to make their case a bit more interesting.

SMU vs Louisville -  A win here would have SMU on very solid ground. The WAB of 46 and SOR of 47 is very borderline. But SMU has no bad losses, 4 Q1 wins, and 5 Q2 wins. This would not be a bad loss either. So for SMU win, and doubts are erased, lose and you will be sweating on Selection Sunday, even though you may be ok.

USC vs Washington - It isnt even close for USC at the moment. Win this and start the process.

Mississippi St. vs Auburn - Auburn likely has to win two here to have any case as a 2-1 mark would get them 2 games above .500 at 18-16, my minimum for consideration. So win today and setup a must win tomorrow vs Tennessee.

Cincy vs UCF - UCF is my 4th team in. They may be ok but anytime you are this close you are too close for comfort to the cut line. Cincy needs a win here to keep their hopes alive, although a win here would not put them in my field tomorrow.

Northwestern vs Indiana - Northwestern has had Indianas number the last few years. This is a Q2 game for Indiana, but their resume is very paltry 3-11 vs Q1, 3-2 vs Q2. No bad losses, good performance metrics Torvik=29 and KenPom=41, but bordeline resume metrics WAB=47, SOR=46. A loss here may be too much to overcome, a win would keep them in the conversation.

Ole Miss vs Texas - Ole Miss is a Q2 game for Texas. The Longhorns may be ok but a loss here would put them at 17-14 overall vs D1 schools and push them further down the S curve and into the precarious zone. A win would probably make the Longhorns case solid enough.

California vs Florida State - California's resume is pretty blah honestly. 4 Q1 wins and 2 Q2 wins is not a lot with 1 Q3 loss. A win here would give them a 3rd Q2 win but may not be enough to push them in. The 4 Q1 wins are the best of the serious bubble teams and the WAB of 49 and SOR of 52 is ok. But they probably have to win this game at least and they may have to find a way to upset #1 Duke tomorrow to get in.

South Carolina vs Oklahoma - This wont move the needed for Oklahoma but a win here sets up a winnable Q1 game tomorrow vs Texas A&M which could start the ball rolling with some seriousness.

Oklahoma State vs TCU - TCU should be safe. Oklahoma State has a weird resume. Going against them is a bad NET of 72, and bad performance metrics Torvik of 77, and KenPom of 65. That is usually not good enough. But the resume metrics are borderline SOR=49, WAB=48 and they have no bad losses with 2 Q1 wins and 8 Q2 wins. A win here would put Ok State in the convo and a win tomorrow vs Kansas would make them very interesting.

Enjoy the games today!

March 10th Bracketology **Updated 10am ET**

Seed Power Team

1 1 * Duke

1 2 * Michigan

1 3 * Arizona

1 4 * Florida

2 5 UConn

2 6 Houston

2 7 Michigan St

2 8 Illinois

3 9 Iowa State

3 10 Nebraska

3 11 * Gonzaga

3 12 Purdue

4 13 Alabama

4 14 Virginia

4 15 Vanderbilt

4 16 Kansas

5 17 Texas Tech

5 18 Arkansas

5 19 North Carolina

5 20 * St. John's

6 21 Louisville

6 22 Wisconsin

6 23 Tennessee

6 24 BYU

7 25 Kentucky

7 26 UCLA

7 27 St. Mary's

7 28 Villanova

8 29 Iowa

8 30 Miami

8 31 Clemson

8 32 Texas A&M

9 33 Georgia

9 34 * Utah St

9 35 Ohio State

9 36 * Saint Louis

10 37 TCU

10 38 * Miami-OH

10 39 NC State

10 40 Texas

11 41 Santa Clara

11 42 Missouri

11a 43 UCF

11b 44 VCU

11c 45 Indiana

11d 46 SMU

12 47 * South Florida

12 48 * Northern Iowa

12 49 * Stephen F. Austin

12 50 * Yale

13 51 * High Point

13 52 * Utah Valley

13 53 * Liberty

13 54 * Hofstra

14 55 * North Dakota St

14 56 * UC Irvine

14 57 * Troy

14 58 * Wright St

15 59 * Portland St

15 60 * Merrimack

15 61 * Furman

15 62 * Queens

16 63 * Tennessee St

16 64 * UMBC

16a 65 * Howard

16a 66 * Long Island

16a 67 * Bethune Cookman

16a 68 *Boston U

Last Four In: SMU, Indiana, VCU, UCF

First Four Out: Va Tech, California, Stanford, SDSU

Next Four Out: New Mexico, Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Auburn

Notes:

Furman moves into the field after upsetting ETSU last night. Tonight Long Island plays Mercyhurst in the NEC final, but Mercyhurst is ineligible so it is just for pride as Long Island already has the automatic bid locked up.  Monmouth/Hofstra play in the CAA final tonight, Wright State/Detroit Mercy in the Horizon final, Sienna/Merrimack in the MAAC final, and Santa Clara/Gonzaga in the WCC final.

Speaking of Santa Clara. The win over St. Marys last night probably locks up a bid for them. I have them now 6 teams deep in the field and a loss to Gonzaga, unless maybe it is by 40, wont slide them down. Of course you never know if teams below you or just outside the field get hot or if Cinderellas start stealing spots, how it can change the calculus.  But for now, I think Santa Clara should feel solid.

Todays Bubble Games:

Pittsburgh vs Stanford - A bubbly day in the ACC kicks off with Stanford hosting Pitt. This is a game where Stanford will not help themselves but a loss ends their at-large chances. A win means a rematch from Saturday with NC State which would be a Q1 opportunity. A win there will have Stanford in the mix heading into Selection Sunday as it would be their 6th Q1 win with 4 Q2 wins. They have 3 Q3 losses though which is a big stain, and questionable performance metrics. So get to the quarterfinals vs Virginia and then we will see.

Utah vs Cincy - Cincy is a long shot, but a path could be there. They have to win this won and then beat UCF Wednesday. That sets up a matchup with Arizona in the quarterfinals. A win there could have the Bearcats in, but that is the minimum.

Syracuse vs SMU - Another bubble game for the ACC. SMU is my last team in today, meaning they have to make some noise to likely keep their spot. This is a must win and would give them a 5th Q2 win to go with 4 Q1 wins and no bad losses. That might be enough, but still be close enough to the edge to be dicey. A win means a matchup with Louisville tomorrow.  A win there probably locks them in, a loss means sweat city on Selection Sunday.

Wake Forest vs Virginia Tech - The Hokies are my first team out of the field. A win here would be a 7th Q2 win to go with 2 Q1 wins and no bad losses. The problem is the Hokies performance metrics are not great. A win here means a matchup with Clemson on Wednesday in a Q1 game. Win that one and the Hokies may be in, a loss would mean they are on the edge.

Santa Clara vs Gonzaga - As I mentioned above, I think Santa Clara may be good now, but just win tonight and erase any doubt with the auto bid.

March 9th, 2026 Bracketology **Updated 2pm ET**

 Seed Power Team

1 1 * Duke

1 2 * Michigan

1 3 * Arizona

1 4 * Florida

2 5 UConn

2 6 Houston

2 7 Michigan St

2 8 Illinois

3 9 Iowa State

3 10 Nebraska

3 11 * Gonzaga

3 12 Purdue

4 13 Alabama

4 14 Virginia

4 15 Vanderbilt

4 16 Kansas

5 17 Texas Tech

5 18 Arkansas

5 19 North Carolina

5 20 * St. John's

6 21 Louisville

6 22 Wisconsin

6 23 Tennessee

6 24 BYU

7 28 St. Mary's

7 34 Kentucky

7 25 UCLA

7 26 Villanova

8 27 Iowa

8 29 Miami

8 30 Clemson

8 31 Texas A&M

9 32 Georgia

9 33 * Utah St

9 35 Ohio State

9 36 * Saint Louis

10 37 TCU

10 38 * Miami-OH

10 39 NC State

10 40 Texas

11 41 Missouri

11 42 UCF

11a 43 Santa Clara

11b 44 VCU

11c 45 Indiana

11d 46 SMU

12 47 * South Florida

12 48 * Northern Iowa

12 49 * Stephen F. Austin

12 50 * Yale

13 51 * High Point

13 52 * Utah Valley

13 53 * Liberty

13 54 * Hofstra

14 55 * North Dakota St

14 56 * UC Irvine

14 57 * Troy

14 58 * Wright St

15 59 * Portland St

15 60 * East Tenn St

15 61 * Merrimack

15 62 * Queens

16 63 * Tennessee St

16 64 * UMBC

16a 65 * Howard

16a 66 * Long Island

16a 67 * Bethune Cookman

16a 68 *Boston U

Last Four In: SMU, Indiana, VCU, Santa Clara.

First Four Out: Virginia Tech, California, Stanford, San Diego St.

Next Four Out: New Mexico, Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Auburn.

It was a weekend where most bubble teams lost and blew chances to win their way into the field. The exception was VCU, who despite a mediocre resume, picked up a Q1 road win at Dayton and slid into my field.

The only real bubble game today is:

Santa Clara vs St. Marys - Santa Clara is my 4th team in the field today. They may have done enough to get into the field by avoiding a bad loss to Pacific last night. A loss here to St. Marys would be Q1 so wouldnt hurt their resume or knock them out of my field, unless it was a horrific blowout perhaps, but it would leave them vulnerable to chaos below them. A win would likely lock a bid in for Santa Clara. 

Typically, you would want to be 5/6 slots into the field at least at this point to feel pretty safe. I do think that UCF and above in my S curve, is likely safe unless we see multiple teams in the first 8 out get hot and make a magical run.

As far as leagues where bid thieves are possible:

Atlantic 10 - St. Louis should be in despite a slide late. VCU is on the edge so they could lose their at-large bid with an early A-10 exit. The worst case scenario is VCU making the final and losing to say a Dayton or GMU. Then the A-10 could get 3 bids and take one from the current bubble teams.

Big East - You could put the Big East here. UConn, St. Johns, and Villanova are locks. Could a Seton Hall or a Creighton or someone get hot and win the league? Maybe.

MAC - This is the big one. Miami OH should be in even with an early exit. The committee will not overlook at perfect regular season even with the lack of Q1/Q2 wins and mediocre performance metrics. Bubble world is pulling for Miami to win it, but Akron may be the best team.

Mountain West - This is another league where a bid stealer is very possible. Utah State is a lock, SDSU and New Mexico are bubble teams and currently not in my bracket. They could easily win the automatic bid, and Grand Canyon, Boise St, Nevada even UNLV are all capable. 

WCC - Only one bid thief remains in the WCC. Oregon State plays Gonzaga tonight. Bubble nation pulls hard for the Zags tonight.

A huge week of conference tournaments awaits, my personal favorite sports week of the year. I will update every day going forward.

March 6th 2026 Bracketology **Updated 12:00pm ET**

 Seed Power Team

1 1 * Duke

1 2 * Michigan

1 3 * Arizona

1 4 * UConn

2 5 * Florida

2 6 Houston

2 7 Michigan St

2 8 Illinois

3 9 Purdue

3 10 Iowa State

3 11 Nebraska

3 12 * Gonzaga

4 13 Texas Tech

4 14 Virginia

4 15 Alabama

4 16 Kansas

5 17 North Carolina

5 18 Vanderbilt

5 19 Arkansas

5 20 Tennessee

6 21 St. John's

6 22 Louisville

6 23 Wisconsin

6 24 St. Mary's

7 25 Villanova

7 26 Kentucky

7 27 Miami

7 28 BYU

8 29 Clemson

8 30 Georgia

8 31 UCLA

8 32 * Saint Louis

9 33 * Utah St

9 34 Iowa

9 35 NC State

9 36 Texas A&M

10 37 Texas

10 38 UCF

10 39 Missouri

10 40 * Miami-OH

11 41 TCU

11 42 Ohio State

11a 43 SMU

11b 44 Indiana

11c 45 Santa Clara

11d 46 Auburn

12 47 * South Florida

12 48 * Belmont

12 49 * Yale

12 50 * Stephen F. Austin

13 51 * High Point

13 52 * UNCW

13 53 * Liberty

13 54 * Cal Baptist

14 55 * Hawai'i

14 56 * North Dakota St

14 57 * Navy

14 58 * Troy

15 59 *Austin Peay

15 60 * Portland St

15 61 * Wright St

15 62 * East Tenn St

16 63 * Merrimack

16 64 * UMBC

16a 65 * Howard

16a 66 * Tennessee St

16a 67 * Long Island

16a 68 * Bethune Cookman

Last Four In: Auburn, Santa Clara, Indiana, SMU

First Four Out: VCU, Va Tech, New Mexico, Cincy

Next Four Out: California, San Diego St, Oklahoma St., Seton Hall

Notes:

No seed or team changes today, although I did move Michigan up to the overall #2 seed and I dropped Liberty a spot on the S Curve.

With every team in action this weekend, there are of course plenty of bubble games. I will focus just on the key ones. Also lots of the small conferences really kick into gear today so some of the teams on the bottom of the bracket could start changing.

Tonight:

VCU @ Dayton - VCU is my first team out. This is a Q1 opportunity as of this morning with Dayton having a NET of 70. VCU enters the day with a Q1 record of 1-5 and a Q2 record of 3-2. They have no bad losses. The problem is they have no wins over likely at-large worthy teams, 0-6 vs (Vandy, St. Louis x 2, NC State, Utah State, and New Mexico). They do have a win over fellow bubble team Virginia Tech on a neutral floor. Dayton isnt an at-large worthy team either, but VCU needs all the help they can get and a 2nd Q1 win would help. The predictive and resume metrics just arent great either. VCU probably has to win tonight and make a run to the A-10 final to even have a chance. A loss tonight would make an at-large case very difficult.

UCF @ WVU - UCF should be safe, but WVU has a long shot chance if they win tonight and make a run to the Big 12 tourny final. A loss here would end any chance for an at large bid if it isnt already dead.

St. Johns @ Seton Hall - The Pirates have a chance to move the needle some tonight if they can pick up a Q1 win at home over St. Johns. A win tonight and a run to the Big East final assuming another quality win over either St. Johns/Villanova/UConn to get there would have Seton Hall in the convo at least. A loss tonight makes an at large bid very difficult to fathom.

Miami OH @ Ohio - A win here will likely lock up a bid for Miami in my bracket regardless of how they do in the MAC tournament. I think you have to reward an undefeated season in an ok mid major league like the MAC. However, a loss here makes it difficult for me. I am not sure how it would impact their SOR/WAB which right now is good enough for an at large bid. The performance metrics are not though. A loss here and a QF or SF loss in the MAC tournament will make for a very nervous Selection Sunday. Win today and they lock it up. It also will make bubble teams pull very hard for them in the MAC tournament as it would become one of the top bid thief leagues to watch.

UNLV @ San Diego St. - UNLV is playing spoiler right now in the MWC.  They have won 6 of 8 and blew out Utah State in their last game. This is a must win for SDSU although it wont help their resume. A loss here and any at large chance is over for me. In fact even a win here and a run to the final is going to be a tough sell for me to put them in.

Saturday:

Virginia Tech @ Virginia - Va Tech goes for the season sweep of Virginia. It obviously also depends on what else happens across the country, but a win here would have the Hokies in my bracket heading into Championship Week but probably needing another quality win in the ACC tournament to feel good. A loss may require a run to the semifinals at least.

Cincy @ TCU - A huge Big 12 bubble game. TCU could weather a loss here and may be good even if they avoid a bad loss in the Big 12 tournament but in a precarious state. A win here would leave no doubt. Cincy has to win this one and probably pick up a quality win or maybe two in the Big 12 tournament to get a bid.

SMU @ Florida State - A win here would likely lock up a bid for SMU. But a loss which would be their 4th in a row and would mean at minimum they have to avoid a bad loss at the ACC tournament and may need a quality win.

Stanford @ NC State - A win here would lock it up for the Pack. A loss here and avoiding a bad loss at the ACC tournament is probably enough too. A loss here and a bad loss at the ACC tournament, well then we may have a problem.

New Mexico @ Utah State - A win here would likely move the Lobos back into my bracket. But to keep it they would probably need to pick up one more quality win at the MWC tournament or at the very leas avoid a bad loss and hope for no conf tourney chaos. A loss will make an at large bid very difficult.

California @ Wake Forest - This a Q1 opportunity for Cal and a win would give them 5 Q1 wins and 2 Q2 wins and only 1 bad Q3 loss. The performance metrics are not good but a win here would probably boost the resume metrics to a borderline state and the 5 Q1 wins would stand out among bubble teams. But they would then be in a similar spot as New Mexico where just avoiding a bad loss may not be enough to keep their spot.

Indiana @ Ohio State - Ohio State is probably good now but a loss here and a bad loss at the Big 10 tournament could make it a little dicey again. A win for sure locks it up. A loss by Indiana and no quality wins in the Big Ten tournament will have them on edge heading into Selection Sunday.

Texas A&M @ LSU - A&M may be good even with a loss here and in the SEC tournament, but it would make things precarious. One more win and they are a lock.

Auburn @ Alabama - A win and Auburn is probably in decent shape unless they pick up a bad loss at the SEC tournament. A loss would likely require at least 2 if not 3 SEC tournament wins.

Oklahoma @ Texas - I think one more win either here or in the SEC tournament locks it up for Texas, although they may be ok either way. A loss here and a bad loss at the SEC tournament could make things more interesting.

UCLA @ USC - USC losesrs of 6 in a row arent quite dead yet, but they are on life support. A win here and probably at least 2 quality wins in the Big Ten tournament is a minimum to warrant an at-large bid.

Next bracket wont be till Monday as I am out of town. I will post some comments on here about these games time permitting.

March 5th 2026 Bracketology **Updated 1pm ET**

 Seed Power Team

1 1 * Duke

1 2 * Arizona

1 3 * Michigan

1 4 * UConn

2 5 * Florida

2 6 Houston

2 7 Michigan St

2 8 Illinois

3 9 Purdue

3 10 Iowa State

3 11 Nebraska

3 12 * Gonzaga

4 13 Texas Tech

4 14 Virginia

4 15 Alabama

4 16 Kansas

5 17 North Carolina

5 18 Vanderbilt

5 19 Arkansas

5 20 Tennessee

6 21 St. John's

6 22 Louisville

6 23 Wisconsin

6 24 St. Mary's

7 25 Villanova

7 26 Kentucky

7 27 Miami

7 28 BYU

8 29 Clemson

8 30 Georgia

8 31 UCLA

8 32 * Saint Louis

9 33 * Utah St

9 34 Iowa

9 35 NC State

9 36 Texas A&M

10 37 Texas

10 38 UCF

10 39 Missouri

10 40 * Miami-OH

11 41 TCU

11 42 Ohio State

11a 43 SMU

11b 44 Indiana

11c 45 Santa Clara

11d 46 Auburn

12 47 * South Florida

12 48 * Belmont

12 49 * Yale

12 50 * Stephen F. Austin

13 51 * High Point

13 52 * Liberty

13 53 * UNCW

13 54 * Cal Baptist

14 55 * Hawai'i

14 56 * North Dakota St

14 57 * Navy

14 58 * Troy

15 59 *Austin Peay

15 60 * Portland St

15 61 * Wright St

15 62 * East Tenn St

16 63 * Merrimack

16 64 * UMBC

16a 65 * Howard

16a 66 * Tennessee St

16a 67 * Long Island

16a 68 * Bethune Cookman

Last Four In: Auburn, Santa Clara, Indiana, SMU

First Four Out: VCU, Va Tech, New Mexico, Cincy

Next Four Out: California, SDSU, Oklahoma St., Seton Hall

Notes:

Indiana moves back into the field after picking up a Q2 win last night pounding Minnesota and New Mexico falls out after losing at home to Colorado St.

USC is all but done now after getting blown out at Washington.

March 4th 2026 Bracketology **Updated 2:30m ET**

 Seed Power Team

1 1 * Duke

1 2 * Arizona

1 3 * Michigan

1 4 * UConn

2 5 * Florida

2 6 Houston

2 7 Michigan St

2 8 Illinois

3 9 Purdue

3 10 Iowa State

3 11 Nebraska

3 12 * Gonzaga

4 13 Texas Tech

4 14 Virginia

4 15 Alabama

4 16 Kansas

5 17 North Carolina

5 18 Vanderbilt

5 19 Arkansas

5 20 Tennessee

6 21 St. John's

6 22 Louisville

6 23 Wisconsin

6 24 St. Mary's

7 25 Villanova

7 26 Kentucky

7 27 BYU

7 28 Clemson

8 29 Georgia

8 30 * Saint Louis

8 31 Miami

8 32 UCLA

9 33 * Utah St

9 34 Iowa

9 35 NC State

9 36 Texas

10 37 UCF

10 38 Missouri

10 39 Texas A&M

10 40 * Miami-OH

11 41 TCU

11 42 Ohio State

11a 43 SMU

11b 44 New Mexico

11c 45 Santa Clara

11d 46 Auburn

12 47 * South Florida

12 48 * Belmont

12 49 * Yale

12 50 * Stephen F. Austin

13 51 * High Point

13 52 * Liberty

13 53 * UNCW

13 54 * Cal Baptist

14 55 * Hawai'i

14 56 * North Dakota St

14 57 * Navy

14 58 * Troy

15 59 *Austin Peay

15 60 * Portland St

15 61 * East Tenn St

15 62 * Wright St

16 63 * Merrimack

16 64 * UMBC

16a 65 * Howard

16a 66 * Tennessee St

16a 67 * Long Island

16a 68 * Bethune Cookman

Last Four In: Auburn, Santa Clara, New Mexico, SMU

Fist Four Out: VCU, Va Tech, Indiana, Cincy

Next Four Out: California, San Diego St., USC, Seton Hall

Comments

- Auburn won to get back to 2 games above 0.500 at 16-14. If the season ended today with the nations 3rd toughest schedule and their collection of good wins they were my last team in today knocking VCU out. But, they finish the regular season @ Alabama. A loss there would knock them out of my bracket and they would have to win at least 2 games at the SEC tournament to get back to 2 games above 0.500 and hope for no conference tournament chaos. A win to close the season would be huge for them.

- Cincinnati is a curious case. They are one of the hottest teams in the country and they now have wins vs Iowa State, @ Kansas, vs BYU, and vs UCF with only 1 bad loss, but it was a Q4 at home vs Eastern Michigan back in November. Their performance metrics are very good with a Torvik of 26 and a KenPom of 42, but the resume metrics are lacking with a SOR of 66 and a WAB of 58. Usually the committee will look closer at resume metrics to put you in the field and performance more towards seeding. They finish with a Q1 game @ TCU. A win there could make it very hard for the committee to keep them out barring a bad loss at the Big 12 tournament.

Tonights Bubble Games:

Minnesota @ Indiana - Minnesota can be feisty and has won 3 of 4 and lost closely at Michigan. Indiana cant afford to lose this one. They need to win this one and likely win @ Ohio State to close the season to have a realistic shot at an at large bid.

Texas @ Arkansas - Texas is probably good without a win here, but a loss here and another one to close the season at home to Oklahoma could have them in the last 4 in heading into the SEC tournament which is a precarious position to be in Championship week.

Miami @ SMU - SMU has slowly been sliding down the S curve and is my 4th team in today meaning they would be in Dayton. They have the typical power conference bubble profile 4-8 vs Q1, 3-2 vs Q2, no bad losses, but middling metrics (SOR and WAB at 44, and Torvik at 42 and KenPom at 41).  A win here would put them in good shape, but a loss and then a loss to end the season on the road at FSU would have them in a precarious spot heading into the ACC tournament.

California @ Georgia Tech - Cal's at-large hopes are on life support after their home loss to Pitt over the weekend a road loss to the ACCs worst team would kill it off for good most likely.

Ohio St. @ Penn St. - Ohio State is in decent shape and a win here would all but lock up a bid. But a loss here and to end the season vs Indiana would make things very dicey.

Colorado St. @ New Mexico - Being the 2nd to last team in means you cant lose a Q3 game at home here. In fact they really need to win this one and upset Utah State on the road to end the season to be in ok shape heading into the conference tournament.

USC @ Washington - USC's resume metrics arent terrible with a 47 SOR and 48 WAB, but their performance metrics are not good BT=61, KP=67 and they are on a 5 game losing streak and their best player has left the team. They have to win this game and beat UCLA at home to close the season to have any chance and then they would likely have to pick up a quality win or two in the B1G tournament.