Seed Power Team
1 1 * Duke
1 2 * Michigan
1 3 * Arizona
1 4 * Florida
2 5 Houston
2 6 UConn
2 7 Michigan St.
2 8 Illinois
3 9 Iowa St.
3 10 * Gonzaga
3 11 Nebraska
3 12 Purdue
4 13 Alabama
4 14 Virginia
4 15 Vanderbilt
4 16 Kansas
5 17 Texas Tech
5 18 Arkansas
5 19 North Carolina
5 20 * St. John's (NY)
6 21 Louisville
6 22 Wisconsin
6 23 Tennessee
6 24 BYU
7 25 Kentucky
7 26 UCLA
7 27 Saint Mary's (CA)
7 28 Villanova
8 29 Iowa
8 30 Clemson
8 31 Miami (FL)
8 32 Texas A&M
9 33 Georgia
9 34 * Utah St.
9 35 TCU
9 36 Ohio St.
10 37 * Saint Louis
10 38 * Miami (OH)
10 39 UCF
10 40 NC State
11 41 Santa Clara
11 42 Missouri
11a 43 VCU
11b 44 SMU
11c 45 Texas
11d 46 Auburn
12 47 * South Fla.
12 48 * McNeese
12 49 * UNI
12 50 * Yale
13 51 * High Point
13 52 * Utah Valley
13 53 * Hofstra
13 54 * UC Irvine
14 55 * NDSU
14 56 * Troy
14 57 * Wright State
14 58 * MTSU
15 59 * Idaho
15 60 * Siena
15 61 * Furman
15 62 * Queens
16 63 * Tennessee St.
16 64 * UMBC
16a 65 * Howard
16a 66 * Long Island
16a 67 * Lehigh
16a 68 * Southern U
Last Four In: Auburn, Texas, SMU, VCU
First Four Out: Indiana, Oklahoma, Va Tech, SDSU
Next Four Out: New Mexico, Oklahoma St, California, Seton Hall
Live Notes Today:
- With the Miami OH loss, Auburn had already fallen out of my bracket to be the first team out. But they will not be in my bracket after a loss today to Tennessee to fall to 17-16 overall. So while I will reanalyze all the teams tomorrow and there could be some shuffling, my final 4 in at the moment are: Texas (last in), SMU, VCU, Missouri. Miami OH will probably be in Dayton as well, but they have an odd caveat. I think Miami OH will be in regardless of bid stealers because the committee will honor their 31-0 regular season.
There are still 6 theoretical bid stealing scenarios (ACC, A-10, Big East, Big 10, Mountain West, SEC). The A-10 and MWC are the most likely. Also VCU could pick up a Q3 loss if they end up losing before the A-10 final and if that happens they will likely fall out of my bracket. So then excluding Miami OH, the 6 teams in order that are still not a "lock" are Texas, SMU, VCU, Missouri, Santa Clara, and NC State. Only VCU is still active. But after I review the updated data tomorrow morning that order could change.
- Miami OH goes down in the MAC tournament. Even though the performance metrics are not in Miami's favor, I think the committee will not leave them out at 31-1 and undefeated regular season. However, they may slide into Dayton. More imporant for bubble nation, a spot is gone. So Auburn in real time, has now fallen out of my bracket, and Texas is my final team in.
Notes:
Late post today. So I will keep the comments to a minimum to get this out before the main games kick off.
Auburn is the last team in today, a win today vs Tennessee will put them in decent shape, a loss and they are out. But of course the last team or two in has to worry about bid stealers. Miami Oh has to win the MAC or this spot goes away. They are in action today in a tight game in the 1st half vs UMass.
I reserve the right to reshuffle things as I analyze it more the coming days. Another fun day of action ahead! I will make some posts today with comments on the action throughout the day.
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