Seed Power Team
1 1 * Duke
1 2 * Michigan
1 3 * Arizona
1 4 * UConn
2 5 * Florida
2 6 Houston
2 7 Michigan St
2 8 Illinois
3 9 Purdue
3 10 Iowa State
3 11 Nebraska
3 12 * Gonzaga
4 13 Texas Tech
4 14 Virginia
4 15 Alabama
4 16 Kansas
5 17 North Carolina
5 18 Vanderbilt
5 19 Arkansas
5 20 Tennessee
6 21 St. John's
6 22 Louisville
6 23 Wisconsin
6 24 St. Mary's
7 25 Villanova
7 26 Kentucky
7 27 Miami
7 28 BYU
8 29 Clemson
8 30 Georgia
8 31 UCLA
8 32 * Saint Louis
9 33 * Utah St
9 34 Iowa
9 35 NC State
9 36 Texas A&M
10 37 Texas
10 38 UCF
10 39 Missouri
10 40 * Miami-OH
11 41 TCU
11 42 Ohio State
11a 43 SMU
11b 44 Indiana
11c 45 Santa Clara
11d 46 Auburn
12 47 * South Florida
12 48 * Belmont
12 49 * Yale
12 50 * Stephen F. Austin
13 51 * High Point
13 52 * UNCW
13 53 * Liberty
13 54 * Cal Baptist
14 55 * Hawai'i
14 56 * North Dakota St
14 57 * Navy
14 58 * Troy
15 59 *Austin Peay
15 60 * Portland St
15 61 * Wright St
15 62 * East Tenn St
16 63 * Merrimack
16 64 * UMBC
16a 65 * Howard
16a 66 * Tennessee St
16a 67 * Long Island
16a 68 * Bethune Cookman
Last Four In: Auburn, Santa Clara, Indiana, SMU
First Four Out: VCU, Va Tech, New Mexico, Cincy
Next Four Out: California, San Diego St, Oklahoma St., Seton Hall
Notes:
No seed or team changes today, although I did move Michigan up to the overall #2 seed and I dropped Liberty a spot on the S Curve.
With every team in action this weekend, there are of course plenty of bubble games. I will focus just on the key ones. Also lots of the small conferences really kick into gear today so some of the teams on the bottom of the bracket could start changing.
Tonight:
VCU @ Dayton - VCU is my first team out. This is a Q1 opportunity as of this morning with Dayton having a NET of 70. VCU enters the day with a Q1 record of 1-5 and a Q2 record of 3-2. They have no bad losses. The problem is they have no wins over likely at-large worthy teams, 0-6 vs (Vandy, St. Louis x 2, NC State, Utah State, and New Mexico). They do have a win over fellow bubble team Virginia Tech on a neutral floor. Dayton isnt an at-large worthy team either, but VCU needs all the help they can get and a 2nd Q1 win would help. The predictive and resume metrics just arent great either. VCU probably has to win tonight and make a run to the A-10 final to even have a chance. A loss tonight would make an at-large case very difficult.
UCF @ WVU - UCF should be safe, but WVU has a long shot chance if they win tonight and make a run to the Big 12 tourny final. A loss here would end any chance for an at large bid if it isnt already dead.
St. Johns @ Seton Hall - The Pirates have a chance to move the needle some tonight if they can pick up a Q1 win at home over St. Johns. A win tonight and a run to the Big East final assuming another quality win over either St. Johns/Villanova/UConn to get there would have Seton Hall in the convo at least. A loss tonight makes an at large bid very difficult to fathom.
Miami OH @ Ohio - A win here will likely lock up a bid for Miami in my bracket regardless of how they do in the MAC tournament. I think you have to reward an undefeated season in an ok mid major league like the MAC. However, a loss here makes it difficult for me. I am not sure how it would impact their SOR/WAB which right now is good enough for an at large bid. The performance metrics are not though. A loss here and a QF or SF loss in the MAC tournament will make for a very nervous Selection Sunday. Win today and they lock it up. It also will make bubble teams pull very hard for them in the MAC tournament as it would become one of the top bid thief leagues to watch.
UNLV @ San Diego St. - UNLV is playing spoiler right now in the MWC. They have won 6 of 8 and blew out Utah State in their last game. This is a must win for SDSU although it wont help their resume. A loss here and any at large chance is over for me. In fact even a win here and a run to the final is going to be a tough sell for me to put them in.
Saturday:
Virginia Tech @ Virginia - Va Tech goes for the season sweep of Virginia. It obviously also depends on what else happens across the country, but a win here would have the Hokies in my bracket heading into Championship Week but probably needing another quality win in the ACC tournament to feel good. A loss may require a run to the semifinals at least.
Cincy @ TCU - A huge Big 12 bubble game. TCU could weather a loss here and may be good even if they avoid a bad loss in the Big 12 tournament but in a precarious state. A win here would leave no doubt. Cincy has to win this one and probably pick up a quality win or maybe two in the Big 12 tournament to get a bid.
SMU @ Florida State - A win here would likely lock up a bid for SMU. But a loss which would be their 4th in a row and would mean at minimum they have to avoid a bad loss at the ACC tournament and may need a quality win.
Stanford @ NC State - A win here would lock it up for the Pack. A loss here and avoiding a bad loss at the ACC tournament is probably enough too. A loss here and a bad loss at the ACC tournament, well then we may have a problem.
New Mexico @ Utah State - A win here would likely move the Lobos back into my bracket. But to keep it they would probably need to pick up one more quality win at the MWC tournament or at the very leas avoid a bad loss and hope for no conf tourney chaos. A loss will make an at large bid very difficult.
California @ Wake Forest - This a Q1 opportunity for Cal and a win would give them 5 Q1 wins and 2 Q2 wins and only 1 bad Q3 loss. The performance metrics are not good but a win here would probably boost the resume metrics to a borderline state and the 5 Q1 wins would stand out among bubble teams. But they would then be in a similar spot as New Mexico where just avoiding a bad loss may not be enough to keep their spot.
Indiana @ Ohio State - Ohio State is probably good now but a loss here and a bad loss at the Big 10 tournament could make it a little dicey again. A win for sure locks it up. A loss by Indiana and no quality wins in the Big Ten tournament will have them on edge heading into Selection Sunday.
Texas A&M @ LSU - A&M may be good even with a loss here and in the SEC tournament, but it would make things precarious. One more win and they are a lock.
Auburn @ Alabama - A win and Auburn is probably in decent shape unless they pick up a bad loss at the SEC tournament. A loss would likely require at least 2 if not 3 SEC tournament wins.
Oklahoma @ Texas - I think one more win either here or in the SEC tournament locks it up for Texas, although they may be ok either way. A loss here and a bad loss at the SEC tournament could make things more interesting.
UCLA @ USC - USC losesrs of 6 in a row arent quite dead yet, but they are on life support. A win here and probably at least 2 quality wins in the Big Ten tournament is a minimum to warrant an at-large bid.
Next bracket wont be till Monday as I am out of town. I will post some comments on here about these games time permitting.
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