Seed Power Team
1 1 * Duke
1 2 * Michigan
1 3 * Arizona
1 4 * Florida
2 5 Houston
2 6 UConn
2 7 Michigan St
2 8 Illinois
3 9 Iowa State
3 10 * Gonzaga
3 11 Nebraska
3 12 Purdue
4 13 Alabama
4 14 Virginia
4 15 Vanderbilt
4 16 Kansas
5 17 Texas Tech
5 18 Arkansas
5 19 North Carolina
5 20 * St. John's
6 21 Louisville
6 22 Wisconsin
6 23 Tennessee
6 24 BYU
7 25 Kentucky
7 26 UCLA
7 27 St. Mary's
7 28 Villanova
8 29 Iowa
8 30 Miami
8 31 Clemson
8 32 Texas A&M
9 33 Georgia
9 34 * Utah St
9 35 Ohio State
9 36 * Saint Louis
10 37 TCU
10 38 * Miami-OH
10 39 NC State
10 40 Texas
11 41 Santa Clara
11 42 Missouri
11a 43 UCF
11b 44 VCU
11c 45 SMU
11d 46 Indiana
12 47 * South Florida
12 48 * Northern Iowa
12 49 * Stephen F. Austin
12 50 * Yale
13 51 * High Point
13 52 * Utah Valley
13 53 * Liberty
13 54 * Hofstra
14 55 * UC Irvine
14 56 * North Dakota St
14 57 * Troy
14 58 * Wright St
15 59 * Siena
15 60 * Furman
15 61 * Idaho
15 62 * Queens
16 63 * Tennessee St
16 64 * UMBC
16a 65 * Howard
16a 66 * Long Island
16a 67 * Bethune Cookman
16a 68 * Boston U
Last Four In: Indiana, SMU, VCU, UCF
First Four Out: California, Va Tech, SDSU, New Mexico
Next Four Out: Oklahoma St., Oklahoma, Cincy, Auburn
Notes from last night:
Two big bubble losses yesterday in the ACC as Stanford picked up a 4th Q3 loss and likely lost any chance to make the field. Va Tech lost close Q2 game to Wake Forest. This will likely preclude Va Tech from being in my final bracket, but they are my 2nd team out, and when you are that close, you still have some hope that maybe the committee is just looking at you differently than the bracketologists. It seems there is at least one team like that every season.
Santa Clara played a very competitive game with Gonzaga last night but came up short. They are 6 teams deep in my field and are likely a lock for an at-large.
Today and tomorrow are usually the two biggest bubble days of the year.
Todays Games:
Pittsburgh vs NC State - Well this is a worst case scenario for NC State. If this was Stanford, a loss here would not be a bad loss, and the Pack would probably be ok even with a loss as they are 8 teams deep into my field. But this is now a Q3 game, however the caveat is that Pittsburgh now has a NET of 102, and a win here could push that into the top 100 making this a Q2 game. State still may be ok even with a loss. But coming in to today, their WAB is 43, which is getting precariously high. A loss here may not push them out of my bracket, but it COULD push them down a few spots in the S Curve leaving them vulnerable with no way to help themselves anymore. Win today, and the Pack has no worries most likely.
Arizona State vs Iowa State - ASU is not even in my next 4 out. But a win here would give them a 6th Q1 win, with 5 Q2 wins. That is a healthy resume of quality wins. They do have a Q3 and Q4 loss though, and the WAB of 56 and SOR of 59, is too high for serious at large consideration yet. A win here though would start to make their case a bit more interesting.
SMU vs Louisville - A win here would have SMU on very solid ground. The WAB of 46 and SOR of 47 is very borderline. But SMU has no bad losses, 4 Q1 wins, and 5 Q2 wins. This would not be a bad loss either. So for SMU win, and doubts are erased, lose and you will be sweating on Selection Sunday, even though you may be ok.
USC vs Washington - It isnt even close for USC at the moment. Win this and start the process.
Mississippi St. vs Auburn - Auburn likely has to win two here to have any case as a 2-1 mark would get them 2 games above .500 at 18-16, my minimum for consideration. So win today and setup a must win tomorrow vs Tennessee.
Cincy vs UCF - UCF is my 4th team in. They may be ok but anytime you are this close you are too close for comfort to the cut line. Cincy needs a win here to keep their hopes alive, although a win here would not put them in my field tomorrow.
Northwestern vs Indiana - Northwestern has had Indianas number the last few years. This is a Q2 game for Indiana, but their resume is very paltry 3-11 vs Q1, 3-2 vs Q2. No bad losses, good performance metrics Torvik=29 and KenPom=41, but bordeline resume metrics WAB=47, SOR=46. A loss here may be too much to overcome, a win would keep them in the conversation.
Ole Miss vs Texas - Ole Miss is a Q2 game for Texas. The Longhorns may be ok but a loss here would put them at 17-14 overall vs D1 schools and push them further down the S curve and into the precarious zone. A win would probably make the Longhorns case solid enough.
California vs Florida State - California's resume is pretty blah honestly. 4 Q1 wins and 2 Q2 wins is not a lot with 1 Q3 loss. A win here would give them a 3rd Q2 win but may not be enough to push them in. The 4 Q1 wins are the best of the serious bubble teams and the WAB of 49 and SOR of 52 is ok. But they probably have to win this game at least and they may have to find a way to upset #1 Duke tomorrow to get in.
South Carolina vs Oklahoma - This wont move the needed for Oklahoma but a win here sets up a winnable Q1 game tomorrow vs Texas A&M which could start the ball rolling with some seriousness.
Oklahoma State vs TCU - TCU should be safe. Oklahoma State has a weird resume. Going against them is a bad NET of 72, and bad performance metrics Torvik of 77, and KenPom of 65. That is usually not good enough. But the resume metrics are borderline SOR=49, WAB=48 and they have no bad losses with 2 Q1 wins and 8 Q2 wins. A win here would put Ok State in the convo and a win tomorrow vs Kansas would make them very interesting.
Enjoy the games today!
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