***Bracketology March 1st 2024 11am ET***

 ***Bracketology March 1st 2024 11am ET***

Seed Power Team

1 1 Purdue*

1 2 Houston*

1 3 UConn*

1 4 Arizona*

2 5 North Carolina*

2 6 Tennessee*

2 7 Marquette

2 8 Kansas

3 9 Baylor

3 10 Iowa St.

3 11 Duke

3 12 Alabama

4 13 Creighton

4 14 Illinois

4 15 Auburn

4 16 San Diego St.

5 17 Kentucky

5 18 Clemson

5 19 Dayton

5 20 BYU

6 21 Wisconsin

6 22 Utah St.

6 23 Washington St.

6 24 South Carolina

7 25 Saint Mary's (CA)*

7 26 Florida

7 27 Texas Tech

7 28 Oklahoma

8 29 Colorado St.

8 30 Northwestern

8 31 TCU

8 32 Boise St.*

9 33 Nevada

9 34 Michigan St.

9 35 Nebraska

9 36 Mississippi St.

10 37 Texas

10 38 Fla. Atlantic

10 39 Virginia

10 40 Gonzaga

11a 41 New Mexico

11b 42 Seton Hall

11c 43 Providence

11d 44 Utah

11 45 Indiana St.*

11 46 Princeton*

12 47 Grand Canyon*

12 48 Richmond*

12 49 South Fla.*

12 50 McNeese*

13 51 App State*

13 52 Samford*

13 53 Louisiana Tech*

13 54 UC Irvine*

14 55 Vermont*

14 56 Akron*

14 57 Col. of Charleston*

14 58 High Point*

15 59 Oakland*

15 60 Eastern Washington*

15 61 Morehead St.*

15 62 Colgate*

16 63 Fairfield*

16 64 South Dakota St.*

16a 65 Norfolk St.*

16a 66 Eastern Kentucky*

16b 67 Merrimack*

16b 68 Grambling St.*

Last Four In: Utah, Providence, Seton Hall, New Mexico

First Four Out: Wake Forest, Colorado, St. Johns, Kansas St.

Next Four Out: Villanova, Oregon, Ole Miss, Iowa

Notes:

- Big win for Gonzaga last night adding a 2nd Q1 win. I moved them up to my last 10 seed this morning and out of Dayton for now. A win @ St. Marys tomorrow would likely lock in a bid no matter what happens in the WCC tournament.

Big Bubble Games This Weekend:

Fresno St. @ Nevada - This game is tonight. Nevada is pretty safely in but a loss here would be Q4 and would knock them down closer to the bubble. A win though would probably lock up a bid as their last two games are against quality competition.

Tulane @ FAU - FAU is probably going to be in, but their resume is not so great that they can lay an egg here. This is the last chance for a bad loss before the end of the season. They need to win this one and then they are probably a lock. A loss here though with two tough games to end the season and the possibility of a bad loss opportunity in the AAC tournament would increase the risk they may not make the field. Also, for bubble teams the best case is either FAU tanks out of the field or they get hot and carry that momentum into the AAC tournament and win it.

Villanova @ Providence - A very bubbly game. Providence is my 2nd to last team in and Villanova my 5th team out. A Q1 chance for Nova and Q2 for Providence. A 4th Q1 win for Nova may get them in my bracket on Monday as the NET would probably rise into the top 30 as well. For Providence this is a chance to add another quality win and solidfy their spot. One of these teams will be in decent shape Monday the other with work to do.

Oregon @ Arizona - Oregon needs a needle moving win and this is their chance. It would be a 3rd Q win to go along with 4 Q2 and only 1 bad loss. The metrics are mediocre but would take a big rise with a win here. They finish with Colorado and Utah at home which are also good chances to add quality wins. If Oregon wins out they probably are in the field, 2 out of 3 may have them right on the edge heading into the PAC-12 tournament.

Oklahoma St @ Texas - Texas is in decent shape and games after this are quality. So a win here may secure a bid for Texas but a loss would increase the anxiety.

USF @ Charlotte - South Florida is ranked in the national poll thus it would seem hard to keep them out of the field. But South Florida has a NET of 85, mediocre quads, 1-0 vs Q2,  4-3 vs Q2, 2 Q4 losses bad predictive metrics average of 97 but ok performance metrics average of 54.5. This is their last chance of a quality win before the conference tournament. A win here and winning out could bust their NET into the 70s which may have them in possible consideration of an at-large bid if they can avoid a bad loss in the AAC tournament.

Mississippi St @ Auburn - MSU is pretty safely in the field at the moment and they have no more bad loss opportunities ahead. The next two on the road are Q1 opportunities and they finish with a Q2 chance at home. Winning 1 of the last 3 would probably seal a bid, but losing all 3 would probably have them in a somewhat precarious situation heading into the SEC tournament though likely still in the field.

Iowa @ Northwestern - Iowa is my 8th team out of the field this morning. But their last two games are quad 2 chances and wins in both would give them 4 Q1s, 5 Q2s, only one bad loss (Q3) and respectable metrics. Win the last two Iowa may be in the field heading into the B1G tournament. A split would probably leave work to do.

Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech - Wake finishes with this Q1 chance, GT at home (Q3), and Clemson at home (Q1). I think if Wake wins 2 of these they are probably in good shape heading into conference tournament week.

Virginia @ Duke - Virginia finishes up with this Q1 road game and Q3 game at home vs Georgia Tech. The recipe for a bid may be avoid a blowout Saturday, beat GT and avoid a bad loss at the ACC tournament. A win here may put them safely in barring a bad loss to GT and a bad loss at the ACC tournament.

Texas A&M @ Georgia - Texas A&M has fallen off a cliff with 5 straight losses and now a bad record at 15-13 and 4 bad losses (Q3). Their last 3 games are Q2 chances. They may need to win all 3 and then at minimum avoid a bad loss in the SEC tournament to have a chance.

KSU @ Cincy - Both of these teams are out as of now with KSU closer in IMO. KSU finishes with 3 Q1 chances. Winning 2 of 3 may be enough to get them in. Cincy's schedule doest afford the same opportunities with this 1 Q2 and 1 Q1. It probably isnt enough even if they win out to get them close yet. Winning out and winning a couple at the Big 12 tournament could change things. If the committee cares about the conference tournament.

New Mexico @ Boise St. - Boise St. is safe. New Mexico on the other hand has work to do. The quads are mediocre 3-4 vs Q1, 2-1 vs Q2, 2 bad losses (Q3/Q4). The NET is good at 25, but the performance and predictive metrics averages are mediocre at 45.5 and 46. They have 2 Q1 roads games left and a Q4 home game vs Fresno. Win out and they are good. Lose both Q1s and they are probably barely in or out heading into the MWC tournament. A 2-1 finish and avoiding a bad conf tournament loss could be enough.

Ole Miss @ Missouri - A must win for Ole Miss and it wont really help the resume anyway. They finish with 2 Q2 games so winning out would at least keep them in the convo heading into the SEC tournament if not really close.

Gonzaga @ St. Marys - I talked about Gonzaga above. Simply, I think if they avoid a bad loss the rest of the season they are probably in the field now. A win here would clinch it.