***Bracketology February 28th 2024***

 ***Bracketology February 28th 2024***

Seed Power Team

1 1 Purdue*

1 2 Houston*

1 3 UConn*

1 4 Arizona*

2 5 North Carolina*

2 6 Tennessee*

2 7 Marquette

2 8 Kansas

3 9 Baylor

3 10 Iowa St.

3 11 Duke

3 12 Alabama

4 13 Auburn

4 14 Creighton

4 15 Illinois

4 16 San Diego St.

5 17 Kentucky

5 18 Clemson

5 19 Dayton

5 20 BYU

6 21 Wisconsin

6 22 Utah St.

6 23 Washington St.

6 24 Saint Mary's (CA)*

7 25 South Carolina

7 26 Florida

7 27 Oklahoma

7 28 Texas Tech

8 29 Colorado St.

8 30 Northwestern

8 31 TCU

8 32 Nebraska

9 33 Boise St.*

9 34 Michigan St.

9 35 Nevada

9 36 Mississippi St.

10 37 Texas

10 38 Fla. Atlantic

10 39 Virginia

10 40 Providence

11a 41 New Mexico

11b 42 Seton Hall

11c 43 Wake Forest

11d 44 Utah

11 45 Indiana St.*

11 46 Princeton*

12 47 Grand Canyon*

12 48 Richmond*

12 49 South Fla.*

12 50 McNeese*

13 51 App State*

13 52 Samford*

13 53 Louisiana Tech*

13 54 UC Irvine*

14 55 Vermont*

14 56 Akron*

14 57 Col. of Charleston*

14 58 Oakland*

15 59 High Point*

15 60 Eastern Washington*

15 61 Morehead St.*

15 62 Colgate*

16 63 Fairfield*

16 64 South Dakota St.*

16a 65 Norfolk St.*

16a 66 Eastern Kentucky*

16b 67 Merrimack*

16b 68 Grambling St.*

Last Four In: Utah, Wake Forest, Seton Hall, New Mexico

First Four Out: Gonzaga, Colorado, Ole Miss, St. Johns

Next Four Out: Kansas St., Villanova, Texas A&M, Butler

Notes:

- No change to the teams in the field today vs Monday update. 

- Gonzaga is going to be an interesting problem especially if they cant add another Q1 win to their resume their last two games on the road at San Francisco and St. Marys. The NET is 21 and that would be best NET ever left out of the at-large field (3 year history of NET). But the resume is just weak, 1-5 vs Q1, 2-1 vs Q2. However no bad losses, the road win at Kentucky looks better and better and is relatively fresh on peoples minds and their predictive metrics average is very good at 19.5. However that Kentucky win is the only win over an at-large worthy team and the performance metrics average is blah at 55. 

Big Bubble Games Wednesday Night:

Providence @ Marquette. A win here would be Providence's 6th Q1 win. It would put them in great shape to secure an at-large bid. They end with @ Marquette, Villanova, @ Georgetown, UConn. I think a 2-2 finish probably gets them in. Assuming they take care of business at Georgetown then win one of the three other games.

Richmond @ St. Louis. Richmond will likely not have an at-large resume at the end of the season but they are taking a spot right now as the A-10 AQ. A loss here would put Dayton back in that spot and open an at-large spot, which would be Gonzaga's today if that or the AAC auto bid opened up. If that one did too, then Colorado would be in the field.

California @ Colorado - A must win for the Buffs to stay in the mix, as it would be a bad loss. Colorado has a bleh resume with only a 1-5 mark vs Q1 but 7-4 vs Q2 and no bad losses. Their NET is good at 32 and their performance and predictive metrics are ok, not great not bad. Their schedule does them no favors though to pick up big wins. They MUST win their 3 games vs California and Stanford at home and to end the season at Oregon St to avoid a bad loss. Their game at Oregon does offer a Q1 chance. Colorado has to win out to just stay in the convo and even that would then require probably avoiding a bad loss in the PAC-12 tourney and maybe picking up one more quality win. Its a doable path but they have no real room for error anymore.

St. Johns @ Butler. - Another bubble Big East game. Man that conference tournament is going to be something. I have St. Johns as my 4th team out today and Butler my 8th team out. It is a must win for St. Johns as it their last chance prior to the Big East tournament to get a quality win. A win here though would have them very close to inclusion tomorrow. But it is also a must win for Butler. They have this and the season finale at home vs Xavier to pick up two Q2 wins which would also have them very close to the field if they are able to do it. So in many ways this is a loser leave town match with the loser likely have to make a big run in the Big East tournament to have any shot.

South Carolina @ Texas A&M - A&M has a very odd resume with a 6-6 mark vs Q1 which is good but 4 Q3 losses which is bad. A&M is on a 4 game losing streak but has this remaining in their schedule Q2, Q1, Q1, Q1. So even a split would have A&M very much in the convo that is probably a minimum, a 3-1 finish may secure a bid.

Virginia @ BC. UVA needs to win 2 of their last 3 to secure a bid IMO and avoid a bad loss at the ACC tournament, this is a Q2 option with a Q1 game at Duke looming Saturday. Best take care of this one to avoid the stress of a must win in Cameron Indoor.

Seton Hall @ Creighton. Seton Hall has two very tough games ahead this one and at UConn. A win in either may wrap up a bid, competitive losses will keep them in the mix, two blowouts could slide them out of the field. They finish with a Q2 chance at home vs Villanova and a must win at home vs aweful Depaul.

Alabama @ Ole Miss. Ole Miss has lost 5 of 6 to fall out of the bracket. They have this Q1 chance tonight which is borderline. Followed by Q3 at home vs Missouri in another must win, Q2 @ Georgia and Q2 at home vs AM. They probably need at minimum a 2-2 finish to even be in the convo.