*** February 21st 2024 Bracketology***

*** February 21st 2024 Bracketology***

Seed Power Team

1 1 Purdue*

1 2 Houston*

1 3 UConn*

1 4 Arizona*

2 5 North Carolina*

2 6 Tennessee

2 7 Marquette

2 8 Kansas

3 9 Alabama*

3 10 Iowa St.

3 11 Duke

3 12 Creighton

4 13 Baylor

4 14 Illinois

4 15 San Diego St.

4 16 Auburn

5 17 Wisconsin

5 18 Dayton*

5 19 Texas Tech

5 20 Kentucky

6 21 Clemson

6 22 BYU

6 23 Colorado St.

6 24 Utah St.*

7 25 Saint Mary's (CA)*

7 26 Florida

7 27 Washington St.

7 28 South Carolina

8 29 Michigan St.

8 30 Oklahoma

8 31 Northwestern

8 32 Fla. Atlantic

9 33 Boise St.

9 34 Virginia

9 35 Nevada

9 36 TCU

10 37 Nebraska

10 38 Texas

10 39 Grand Canyon*

10 40 Mississippi St.

11 41 New Mexico

11 42 Utah

11a 43 Ole Miss

11a 44 Seton Hall

11b 45 Wake Forest

11b 46 Villanova

12 47 Indiana St.*

12 48 McNeese*

12 49 South Fla.*

12 50 App State*

13 51 Samford*

13 52 Yale*

13 53 UC Irvine*

13 54 Akron*

14 55 Louisiana Tech*

14 56 Vermont*

14 57 Charleston*

14 58 Oakland*

15 59 High Point*

15 60 Morehead St.*

15 61 Eastern Washington*

15 62 Colgate*

16 63 Quinnipiac*

16 64 Southern*

16a 65 Norfolk St.*

16a 66 South Dakota St.*

16b 67 Eastern Kentucky*

16b 68 Merrimack*

Last Four In: Villanova, Wake Forest, Seton Hall, Ole Miss

First Four Out: Gonzaga, Butler, Providence, Texas A&M

Next Four Out: Cincinnati, Colorado, Virginia Tech, Iowa

Notes

- The Big East is the most interesting bubble conference. Four teams (Seton Hall, Villanova, Butler, Providence) are squarely on the bubble and will likely oscillate in and out of the mock field the next few weeks. Today I moved Providence and Butler out while Villanova and Seton Hall moved in. There are various cases to be made for all 4. For now, I like Villanova/Seton Hall's combined Q1/Q2/Q3 records better than Butler and Providences which are below 0.500. But nova and Seton Hall have more bad losses than Butler and Providence so that is going against them. This is one of those things where it will come down to which nuances the committee value.

- I also moved Wake Forest in today. They have gained a Q1 win by not playing as Florida is now in the NET top 30 so their home win counts as Q1. Their metrics are also very good NET of 26 and predictive metrics average of 21.5. Wake has a favorable schedule to do what they need to do to secure a bid. They have 3 Q1 opportunities with two of those at home Duke and Clemson and one on the road Virginia Tech. Take care of the games against Notre Dame, Georgia Tech and then win your two home games and you are more than good, maybe 1 of those 3 and win ND/GT and avoid a bad loss at the ACC tournament could be good enough too.

- Gonzaga is an odd case. They dont have many good wins, 1-5 vs Q1, 2-1 vs Q2. But they have no bad losses and predictive metrics average of 19 and a good NET of 22. However, the performance metrics average is only 57.5. Typically in a case like this the team has an above .500 Q1/Q2 record but Gonzaga doesnt have that and their Q1/Q2/Q3 record is only 8-6 meaning that they have feasted on poor competition with an 11-0 Q4 record. They finish out with 2 Q1 opportunities @ San Francisco and @ St. Marys. Win out and they are likely in no problem, split those last two, they may still be in but may need to make the WCC final.